Morgan Stanley turns bearish on Schindler, downgrades to “underweight”

Published 17/06/2025, 09:30
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) downgraded Schindler Holding AG (SIX:SCHN) to “underweight” from “equal-weight,” citing multiple factors that contribute to a more cautious outlook on the elevator and escalator manufacturer, in a note daed Tuesday.

The brokerage flagged that Schindler’s valuation appears stretched after a share price increase of approximately 19% year-to-date. 

The stock is trading at a roughly 46% premium to the European capital goods sector on a 12-month forward EV/EBIT basis, significantly higher than its historical average premium of about 15%.

Morgan Stanley noted that while Schindler’s exposure to China is lower than some of its peers, the company’s combined exposure to both China and the Americas accounts for about 40% of group revenues. 

These regions are considered "at risk" due to ongoing weakness in the Chinese property market and slowing trends in the United States. 

The brokerage pointed to persistent declines in Chinese property sales and construction activity, with April and May data showing continued year-over-year declines in both sales volume and value. 

In the U.S., Schindler guides for a less than 5% decline in new installations in the Americas region for 2025, reflecting broader industry expectations of a challenging North American market.

Morgan Stanley also expressed skepticism regarding the long-term growth potential of Schindler’s Services and Modernization businesses. 

Although modernization demand is growing, the bank argued that this growth is discretionary and does not mirror the non-discretionary nature of past expansion driven by the Chinese construction boom. 

The brokerage observed that the modernization business resembles a project-based model, which could limit profitability compared to traditional services.

Schindler’s traditional services, including maintenance and repair, are estimated to represent more than 90% of its EBIT, making it vulnerable to potential shifts in competitive dynamics.

The report further pointed to historical market share losses in the Services segment to Independent (LON:IOG) Service Providers (ISPs), raising concerns about the sustainability of growth in this area.

Morgan Stanley noted that private equity firms have been increasingly active in acquiring ISPs, suggesting growing competitive pressures for the large OEMs.

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