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Investing.com -- Shares of Nexi (BIT:NEXII) SpA jumped more than 10% on Friday as investors welcomed the company’s €600 million shareholder distribution plan, despite a softer revenue outlook for 2025.
The Italian payments firm announced its first-ever dividend of €0.25 per share (5.4% yield) and a €300 million share buyback, returning over 10% of its market capitalization to investors.
Fourth-quarter revenue rose 3.7% to €942 million, slightly below expectations of 4.0% and slowing from 5.1% in Q3. Merchant Solutions, Nexi’s largest segment (55% of revenue), grew 4.8% but missed forecasts of 6.6%, as the company faced a weaker macroeconomic backdrop—particularly in the Nordics—and the initial impact of Banco BPM shifting volumes to rival Numia.
However, SME volumes showed strength in DACH, Italy, Denmark, and Poland, while eCommerce and value-added services remained strong.
Issuing Solutions (33% of revenue) performed better, rising 3.8% to €311 million, beating consensus by 3%, partly due to delayed client migrations. Meanwhile, Digital Banking Solutions (12% of revenue) fell 1.2%, in line with estimates.
Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 stood at €513 million, up 6.7% year-over-year, with a 54.5% margin, slightly ahead of expectations.
Full-year EBITDA grew 7.1%, meeting guidance, while second-half free cash flow of €334 million exceeded estimates by 4%.
Excess cash generation for 2024 totaled €717 million, surpassing forecasts, and the company ended the year with €4.97 billion in net financial debt and a 2.7x leverage ratio, within its target range.
For 2025, Nexi expects low-to-mid single-digit revenue growth, in line with consensus but below its previous mid-term targets.
The company cited extraordinary impacts from merchant book M&A and contract renegotiations, particularly the Banco BPM loss, as temporary headwinds.
While management maintains that underlying growth will accelerate, analysts at Barclays (LON:BARC) and Stifel suggest investors may remain cautious about whether these pressures persist beyond 2025.
Nexi also guided for at least a 50bps EBITDA margin expansion to 53.5%, consistent with market expectations but below Stifel’s anticipated 100bps improvement.