Nvidia to deliver ’a strong quarter and outlook’ despite a high bar: MS

Published 18/08/2025, 12:14
© Reuters

Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) expects Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) to report solid results and guidance next week, noting that while near-term expectations have risen, the outlook into 2026 remains highly favorable.

The bank raised its price target to $206 from $200 and reiterated an Overweight rating.

“We expect a strong quarter and outlook, but we’re a little measured on the current quarter – our optimism centers on what lies ahead,” analysts led by Joseph Moore said in a note.

The bank now models $46.6 billion in revenue for the July quarter, up from $45.2 billion previously, and $52.5 billion for October, compared with its prior $51.3 billion.

For fiscal 2026 (FY26), Morgan Stanley lifted its estimates to $273.2 billion in revenue and non-GAAP EPS of $6.51, from $264.6 billion and $6.28.

On the demand side, the Wall Street firm highlighted feedback from hyperscale customers, who described demand as “remarkable”, “insatiable” and “massive.”

The note also pointed to accelerating inference workloads and stronger contributions from tier-2 clouds and specialized providers such as CoreWeave.

Supply remains the key debate in the near term. Analysts cited improving rack assembly and testing capacity, with greater China hardware teams estimating that rack builds from top manufacturers will roughly double in the third quarter.

They model 1.2 million Blackwell units in October and 1.42 million in January.

“Supply is what matters on the night of the earnings call, but demand is what sets the path into 2026, where all indications are positive,” the analysts wrote.

Meanwhile, China remains a source of uncertainty. Analysts said management is likely to guide conservatively, assuming minimal contribution from China in the October quarter, though some licenses have been reinstated for H20 chips.

“When China was originally blocked by the U.S. Commerce Dept, it was described as an $8bn headwind into July. We assume that stays out of the model until there’s more certainty with licenses and demand,” the analysts said.

Looking further out, the team said Nvidia’s competitive position remains strong.

It projects the company will hold close to its current 85% market share in 2026 despite competition from AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) and ASICs, citing Nvidia’s scale in R&D and continued advances in interconnect and system technologies.

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