Raymond James on why Amazon is still a ’show me’ story

Published 15/10/2025, 15:50
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- Amazon’s cloud unit remains a “show me” story despite growing enthusiasm around generative AI, according to a new note from Raymond James analysts.

The firm said it conducted an “in-depth AWS analysis framing out growth scenarios,” including AI infrastructure buildouts, pricing trends for Nvidia’s Hopper and Blackwell chips, and the impact of Amazon’s proprietary Trainium processors. 

While the analysts said “a modest acceleration to 18.5% in 2026 is reasonable,” they added that they failed to collect enough evidence to “support an acceleration to >20% underlying the bull case.”

In Raymond James’s base case, Amazon Web Services (AWS) is forecast to grow 17.7%, 18.5%, and 18.9% in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with generative AI contributing $17.5 billion in revenue by 2027. 

That compares with a bull case where “GenAI rises to $25B in 2027” and a bear case where it “rises to $6.5B.”

The analysts noted both positive and negative signals for AWS momentum. On the bullish side, “Blackwell/B200 capacity pricing [is] up 15% in 4Q25” and “spot pricing up 60% quarter-on-quarter,” with “potential for Trainium3 to 4x performance” compared with the prior generation. 

However, Raymond James also cited “rising multi-cloud adoption driven by Vertex/Gemini momentum” and a “lack of uptake of Nova LLM … and unclear momentum with Bedrock Agent framework.”

Raymond James maintained a $230 price target for Outperform-rated Amazon, saying the valuation “screens relatively undemanding” at 24 times 2027 earnings. 

The analysts added that they are looking for “improved visibility into AWS growth as a key swing factor,” while remaining “optimistic on the mid-term robotics opportunity.”

 

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.