In a recent note, RBC Capital analysts highlighted the robust state of US equity flows, even as they keep a vigilant eye on the potential end to the current market pullback.
The note detailed several key observations about the market's recent performance and investor sentiment. Firstly, earnings season has been satisfactory, keeping RBC in the "tired goldilocks" camp.
Despite some disappointing news from a few mega-cap growth companies, the bank said the overall rate of upward EPS estimate revisions for the top 10 S&P 500 companies remains significantly higher than the rest of the index.
They explain that this suggests that the rotation trade still has some momentum in the short term, although a durable, multi-year leadership transition remains uncertain.
RBC highlights that investor sentiment, as measured by the AAII survey, took a significant hit last week, yet US equity flows remained strong. This divergence indicates that while individual investor sentiment might be faltering, institutional investors continue to support the market.
Analysts note, "Equity funds flows data has been highlighting a shift away from Growth and Tech, alongside a shift into Value, Small Cap, Industrials, Materials/Commodities, and Financials."
The current pullback in the S&P 500, marked by a 4.7% decline from recent highs, is approaching the severity of the April pullback. However, analysts believe this is not a cause for alarm. They observe that "flows have been a tailwind for rotation but we are monitoring them for signs of a stall."
On the institutional side, US equity futures positioning remains strong, according to the bank, indicating continued confidence in the market. Despite potential uncertainties surrounding the upcoming presidential election, inflows into US equity funds have persisted.
RBC said it will continue to monitor these factors closely, looking for any signs of stabilization or further shifts in investor sentiment.