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Investing.com -- Redeia’s financial performance in fiscal year 2024 was affected by the deconsolidation of Hispasat, leading to a sharp decline in reported net profit.
Net profit fell by 47% year-over-year to €368 million, below both the Barclays (LON:BARC) forecast of €498 million and Bloomberg’s consensus estimate of €442 million.
However, excluding the impact of Hispasat’s deconsolidation, net profit remained in line with Redeia’s guidance of approximately €500 million.
The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of €1.21 billion, slightly better than Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS)’s estimate of €1.19 billion, driven by a stronger-than-expected contribution from Spanish transmission activities in the fourth quarter.
While the consensus estimate was higher at around €1.3 billion, it likely included the contribution from Hispasat.
Overall, reported EBITDA aligned with company guidance. Net income, excluding Hispasat, came in at €527 million, exceeding Morgan Stanley’s estimate of €509 million.
A key challenge in 2024 was the 14% year-over-year decline in EBITDA from Spanish transmission operations, primarily due to a €260 million negative revenue impact from the full depreciation of pre-1998 assets.
This was partially offset by steady performances in international transmission and fiber optic activities, which remained in line with Barclays’ projections.
Redeia’s financial debt for FY24 stood at €5.37 billion, lower than Morgan Stanley’s estimate of €5.66 billion.
This improvement was largely attributed to the exclusion of Hispasat’s debt. Additionally, Redeia still has €220 million in outstanding excess tariff refunds due in 2025, higher than the previously expected €0.1 billion, indicating a possible timing effect on net debt calculations.
Despite earnings challenges, Redeia increased capital expenditure significantly in 2024, reporting a total spend of €1.17 billion, a 34% year-over-year rise.
This exceeded both Barclays’ forecast of €1.16 billion and Redeia’s own target of €1 billion, contributing to the increase in net debt.
“The lack of any inflation adjustment in the Spanish regulation which doesn’t compare favourably vs. other European regulatory frameworks is the main reason Redeia is trading at a discount vs. European regulated peers, in our view,” said analysts at RBC Capital Markets in a note.
Guidance for 2025 has not yet been provided, though it is expected to be released later. Morgan Stanley anticipates that consensus estimates of approximately €500 million in net income for 2025 are broadly accurate.
“We believe in a scenario of some improvement, Redeia now shows a very good risk-adjusted return,” RBC added.
Barclays maintains an ’overweight’ rating on Redeia and reiterates its price target of €20 per share, reflecting a 17.2% potential upside from the current trading price of €17.06.
While the stock is trading at a 6% premium to its estimated 2025 regulated asset base, analysts believe this is unsustainable and expect regulatory adjustments to lead to higher allowed returns, aligning Redeia’s return on regulated equity with European peers.
Redeia also confirmed that its Board will propose a final dividend of €0.6 per share in July, leading to a total 2024 dividend of €0.8 per share, consistent with previous guidance but slightly below the consensus estimate of €0.82 per share.