StubHub shares jump on bullish Wall Street calls after September IPO

Investing.com -- StubHub’s market debut has triggered a wave of upbeat initiations from major Wall Street firms, with analysts pointing to its dominant resale footprint and emerging growth levers in direct issuance and advertising.

Shares in the ticketing platform surged more than 6% in premarket trading Monday. 

BMO Capital Markets analysts said StubHub’s “scale, differentiated offering, and market leadership in the secondary ticketing market provide a key competitive advantage,” adding that its immediate addressable market of around $195 billion could expand to more than $700 billion as it moves into adjacent categories.

Citizens argued that StubHub’s share, which they estimate already exceeds 40%, is still rising as scale increasingly attracts inventory and buyer liquidity.

The broker expects EBITDA margins to move above 30% over the next few years, noting that near-term estimates “seem beatable” and that the 2026 World Cup provides a macro tailwind that lowers forecast risk.

Separately, Evercore analysts said StubHub is only about 5% penetrated into its $190 billion ticketing total addressable market (TAM), highlighting the shift from resale leadership toward a push into primary ticket issuance.

Their proprietary survey work pointed to high brand recognition and user satisfaction, which they see as an advantage as StubHub attempts to win distribution from incumbent ticketing platforms.

Goldman Sachs framed the investment case around margin leverage and free cash flow generation, expecting revenue to grow at a 36% CAGR through 2029.

The bank said StubHub is “positively levered to the large and growing ticketing market” and forecast EBITDA margins rising from 17% in 2024 to above 40% over the next four years as ads and DI scale.

Lastly, JPMorgan analysts said they see StubHub as a “clear leader in secondary ticketing, with accelerating share gains,” and expect direct issuance gross merchandise sales to exceed $2 billion in 2026.

They flagged advertising—set to begin meaningful contribution from late 2025—as a high-margin incremental layer, projecting EBITDA margins above 35% next year as comps ease and monetisation improves.

StubHub raised just under $800 million in its long-awaited U.S. IPO last month, with the company planning to use the proceeds to pare down roughly $2.4 billion in debt.

The listing brought the ticketing group back to public markets after several postponements, following its $4.05 billion takeover by Viagogo in 2020 and earlier ownership under eBay.

Founded in 2000, StubHub now runs a live events marketplace spanning more than 200 countries, covering sports, concerts, and other performances.