Analysts at BMO Capital upped their price target for the S&P 500 in a note earlier this month, while this week, UBS did the same, with both now seeing the index reaching 5,600, representing Street highs.
BMO Capital told investors that the S&P 500 momentum is likely to persist. The firm acknowledged that it had previously underestimated the strength of the market momentum, particularly considering that investor expectations and Fed policy guidance have become essentially aligned compared to the significant disconnect that existed at the beginning of the year.
"In addition, historical performance patterns suggest continued gains given the level of YTD performance," said BMO. "And while we still expect there to be a more significant pullback at some point, it is likely to occur at a much higher level than we previously anticipated, meaning the eventual rebound will also begin at a higher base."
Overall, the firm believes the market is behaving in a similar fashion to 2021 and 2023. These were years where BMO "did not give enough credit to the strength of market momentum," something they are trying to avoid this time around.
Meanwhile, UBS raised its target to 5,600 based on stronger-than-expected earnings. "At the close of 1Q, prior to the onset of reporting season, consensus estimates called EPS growth of 4.1%. By contrast, it now appears that growth will finish at 10.6%," the bank stated.
UBS also noted that second-quarter estimates have also been quite robust, while a similar pattern is also evident in full-year 2024 estimates. "These trends all support further market upside," wrote UBS.