UBS predicts CTAs to sell equities, shift to bonds amid market turbulence

Published 07/04/2025, 11:56
© Reuters.

Investing.com -- UBS provided insights into the recent strategic shifts by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in response to market volatility influenced by tariff concerns.

According to UBS, CTAs have significantly reduced their equity exposure in recent weeks, moving from a neutral stance to the cusp of a net short position. This shift comes as a strategy to navigate the tariff-induced market turbulence.

UBS anticipates that unless equity prices see a rebound of at least 5%, CTAs are poised to engage in substantial selling, with a potential $40 to $50 billion worth of equities to be offloaded over the forthcoming two weeks.

In contrast to their equity strategy, CTAs are now favoring bonds, with a bullish turn expected this month. This renewed interest in bonds marks a notable change in strategy for CTAs.

The foreign exchange (FX) market has seen minimal activity from CTAs in the past two weeks, with a slight increase in buying of G10 currencies against a minor sell-off in emerging market (EM) currencies. UBS forecasts that CTAs will resume FX trading in April, beginning with a sell-off of the US dollar.

The Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and Chinese yuan are predicted to benefit from these moves, at least in the short term.

Finally, in the commodities sector, CTAs are expected to sell across all four cohorts, including precious metals. Despite maintaining a maximum long position in gold, CTAs are likely to sell significant amounts of silver and platinum.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.