Street Calls of the Week
Investing.com -- UBS raised its rating on Deere & Co to Buy from Neutral on expectations that the agricultural machinery downcycle is approaching its end and that earnings are set to recover in 2027.
The firm lowered its price target to $535 from $545.
UBS said Deere’s FY26 earnings are likely to remain under pressure, with EPS forecast at $17.90, down from $20 previously, as agricultural fundamentals and sentiment continue to stabilize.
The firm expects a recovery in FY27, with EPS rising to $23.20, supported by improving farm incomes, dealer restocking, and easing interest rates.
The analyst highlighted that North American sales of large tractors are near historical troughs, and global demand is expected to return to growth in late 2026 or early 2027.
Commodity prices, particularly corn and soybeans, are near multi-year lows, providing further upside potential if prices rebound.
UBS noted that while retail sales may decline slightly in the near term, downside is limited. Policy support, including potential U.S. government aid for soybean farmers, and restored bonus depreciation should help stabilize demand.
The upgrade reflects UBS’s view that while near-term guidance may disappoint, the market should begin to price in the expected earnings inflection and recovery in the agricultural machinery cycle over the next year.