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Investing.com -- In a note to clients on Wednesday, BTIG downgraded Unity shares to Sell from Neutral, arguing that the stock’s recent rally, up more than 40% month-to-date, “overstates the fundamental benefit from an ad model upgrade.”
In the note, published ahead of Unity’s earnings report on August 6, BTIG analysts said the improvement driven by Vector, Unity’s upgraded advertising solution, has already been priced in.
“A mark-to-market suggests shares may already reflect a level of success with both Vector and future Create opportunities,” the team wrote.
While acknowledging some progress, BTIG said it does not justify the extent of the stock’s recent gains.
“Vector [is] improving, but not enough to justify [the] MTD run,” the note stated.
The analysts said Unity’s outlook depends more heavily on the longer-term trajectory of its core operations.
“Success for Unity should be defined by the company’s ability to recapture a podium position in the gaming UA market, and evolution of the Create business over a multi-year timeframe,” BTIG wrote.
The firm credited CEO Matt Bromberg with stabilizing the company after the controversial 2023–24 runtime fee changes, saying he “has done an admirable job of repairing developer relationships.”
Still, BTIG believes that even with potential upside in Create, the stock has likely run too far ahead of fundamentals.
BTIG set a $25 price target on the stock, implying downside from current levels.
“We see potential for incremental growth opportunities,” the firm added. However, they believe shares may already reflect much of that upside.