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Investing.com -- The most recent US jobs report exceeded expectations, effectively dispelling hopes for interest rate reductions this summer, according to Nigel Green, CEO of global financial advisory and asset management organization, deVere Group.
Following the announcement that the US economy added 139,000 jobs in May, surpassing the predicted 125,000, stock futures saw a significant boost and bond yields increased. Green stated that the robustness of the labor market presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve, as inflation pressures persist and the anticipated economic slowdown has not been reflected in crucial data.
Green further asserted that the strong jobs report effectively ends discussions of rate cuts in the summer. The Federal Reserve has previously stated that they need to see a downturn in the labor market to make a move, but this report indicates a strong labor market.
The report arrives as investors grapple with a new wave of uncertainty due to shifts in trade policy. As tariffs increase under the Trump administration, inflationary pressure is expected to rise. Although these effects may take some time to fully manifest in the CPI or PCE figures, markets are already bracing for another round of price increases driven by costs, which could complicate matters for policymakers.
Green also stated that the central bank will likely need to wait until at least September to implement cuts, if not later. This delay could have implications for interest-rate-sensitive assets such as tech stocks, growth sectors, and riskier emerging markets, which had been anticipating a more lenient policy.
Following the report, yields on the 10-year Treasury rose sharply as traders adjusted their expectations. Equities also experienced a short-term rally on the notion that the economy remains strong, although this is underscored by a growing sense of caution. With high real rates and inflation expected to rise in June, risk assets are increasingly susceptible to a re-rating.
Green warned that investors need to quickly adjust their positions, as this is a pivotal moment in policy, but not in the direction many had hoped for. Instead of moving towards cuts, the central bank is returning to a watch-and-wait approach, suggesting that portfolios should start to reflect more defensive allocations.
The report also raises deeper concerns. The longer interest rates remain high, the more at-risk over-leveraged sectors become. Commercial real estate, consumer credit, and regional banks, which are already under stress, might find the environment more challenging than anticipated.
Additionally, the extent of the new trade regime remains uncertain. The inflationary impact of tariffs tends to appear in delayed waves, but the trend is clear. Global firms with cross-border supply chains are likely to face increasing pressure, and these costs are seldom absorbed without consequences.
The Federal Reserve’s next meeting is likely to confirm what the jobs report has already shown: the data is not moving quickly enough in the desired direction. Talk of a summer cut now appears outdated. Even September is starting to seem optimistic unless there’s a significant slowdown in hiring or a major downside surprise in inflation.
Green concluded by urging investors to reassess their positions, as many who were anticipating a summer easing are now offside. The jobs number has redrawn the map, and forward-looking strategies must reflect this reality immediately, not later.
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