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Investing.com -- Volkswagen held a pre-close update with analysts and said it expects a 1% year-over-year increase in Q3 retail sales, with sales excluding China rising 5%.
The German automaker saw mixed regional performance with European sales growing 8.7%, while China declined 7.2% and North America fell 9.8%. Core brands showed 3.1% growth, contrasting with declines at Audi (-2.5%) and Porsche (-5.7%).
Battery electric vehicle (BEV) penetration reached 11.5%, representing a 2.8 percentage point increase year-over-year. Order intake in Western Europe rose 17% year-to-date, with BEVs growing 60% and accounting for 25% of the order book. BEV share in Western Europe stands at 23%.
The company experienced a slightly positive regional mix in Q3, while brand mix was negative but model mix within brands was positive.
Regarding tariffs, the 15% US tariff applies retroactively from August 1, while the 27.5% Mexico tariff remains in place. Management expects a lower tariff impact than the €1.2 billion reported in Q2, with the impact staying more muted through year-end. Retroactive refunds are anticipated in Q4 or Q1 2026.
Volkswagen’s €3 billion goodwill impairment of Porsche will have no cash effect, while the €2.1 billion Porsche product planning write-down will be partly cash but beyond Q3. Working capital optimization to reduce inventories should keep automotive net cash positive in the absence of major M&A, with net liquidity remaining stable.
The company maintains its full-year guidance for automotive net cash flow around zero and a payout ratio of at least 30%, calculated before the goodwill writedown. A dividend of €4.80 is expected at the 30% payout level.
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