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Investing.com -- Nvidia’s earnings after today’s market close could prove pivotal for both the technology sector and broader equities, according to Sevens Report Research.
“Arguably the most important event of the month comes after the close today via NVDA earnings, as that stock has led the entire AI-enthusiasm rally that’s powered stocks higher not just in 2025 but for the past two-and-a-half years,” Sevens said.
The note highlighted that Nvidia alone has contributed 2.3 percentage points of the S&P 500’s 10 percent year-to-date return. Including other large AI-linked names such as Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom and Palantir, those five stocks together have accounted for roughly half of the index’s gains.
“So, if they decline, the S&P 500 will decline,” Sevens warned.
Beyond stock performance, Nvidia’s results matter because of capital spending and earnings expectations tied to artificial intelligence.
Sevens pointed out that the “Mag Seven” companies are projected to spend more than $500 billion on AI-related infrastructure across 2024 and 2025.
“Essentially, this AI infrastructure buildout is acting like a mini-government stimulus program,” the firm said, noting the benefits extend beyond chipmakers to utilities, networking, construction and transportation.
On earnings, Sevens observed that S&P 500 profits are forecast to climb from about $265 in 2025 to $299 in 2026, largely on AI-driven growth.
“If AI earnings growth disappoints, this market has a large valuation problem,” the note cautioned, adding that a pullback could push 2026 earnings down to $275, implying an “unsustainable” 23.5 times multiple.
While Sevens does not expect Nvidia to miss, it stressed that “AI enthusiasm” is central to market momentum and valuations.