Earnings call transcript: Alfa Sigma’s Q2 2025 reveals strong EBITDA

Alfa Sigma reported its second-quarter 2025 earnings, highlighting a robust financial performance with a total accumulated comparable EBITDA of $468 million, marking the second highest in the company’s history. According to InvestingPro data, the company’s trailing twelve-month EBITDA stands at $789.41 million, with a healthy revenue growth of 13.54%. The company maintained a consolidated net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.6x, while carrying a Financial Health Score of "GOOD" from InvestingPro’s comprehensive analysis. Despite global market uncertainties, Alfa Sigma is optimistic about its future, with plans to improve EBITDA margins and expand production capacity in Europe.

Key Takeaways

• Alfa Sigma’s accumulated EBITDA reached $468 million, the second highest ever.
• The company paid $84 million in dividends during Q2.
• Expansion in Europe includes a new plant in Valencia and capacity increase at La Boreva.
• Global uncertainties persist, but Alfa Sigma remains resilient, particularly in Hispanic brands.

Company Performance

Alfa Sigma demonstrated resilience in Q2 2025, with significant contributions from its operations in Mexico, which offset over $200 million in raw material costs. The company’s stock has shown strong momentum, delivering a year-to-date return of 20.3%. The company is transitioning to a consumer staples classification and undergoing a corporate rebranding. Its diversified business model and multi-segment brand portfolio have helped maintain a strong presence in the market, despite challenges in the food service sector in Mexico. For detailed insights into Alfa Sigma’s performance metrics and growth potential, investors can access the comprehensive Pro Research Report available on InvestingPro.

Financial Highlights

• Total accumulated comparable EBITDA: $468 million
• Dividends paid: $84 million
• Consolidated net debt to EBITDA ratio: 2.6x
• Insurance reimbursements for flood damage: €88 million

Outlook & Guidance

Alfa Sigma expects a sequential improvement in EBITDA margins in the second half of 2025. With a current gross profit margin of 29.96% and analysts maintaining a Strong Buy consensus, the company projects flat to low single-digit volume growth and aims for a normalized EBITDA margin of 7-8% in Europe by 2027. Ongoing efforts to manage raw material cost pressures remain a priority. InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued, with analyst price targets indicating potential upside.

Executive Commentary

Roberto Olivares, CFO, expressed optimism about the company’s future, stating, "We are excited about the opportunities ahead and remain committed to delivering value for all our stakeholders." He emphasized the importance of balancing margin protection with market share growth: "There’s always a sweet spot in regards to protecting margin for today and in the long term and gaining market share."

Risks and Challenges

• Global economic uncertainty and low consumer confidence could impact demand.
• Rising turkey protein prices, up over 50% year-over-year, may affect cost structures.
• The impact of tourism on food service dynamics in Mexico remains a concern.
• Competition from private labels continues to grow, challenging market share.

Alfa Sigma’s Q2 2025 earnings call underscored the company’s strategic initiatives and resilience in navigating market challenges. With a focus on expanding its European footprint and improving financial metrics, the company is well-positioned for future growth.

Full transcript - Gpo Alfa A (ALFAA) Q2 2025:

Hernán F. Lozano, Vice President of Investor Relations, Alfa Sigma: An answer session at the end of the presentation with instructions given at that time. You may also submit questions at any time during the call using the Q and A button of the webcast, which will be answered during the Q and A session. As a reminder, today’s conference call is being recorded. Now, I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Hernán F. Lozano, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Lozano, you may be.

Alfa Sigma Executive, Alfa Sigma: Good afternoon everyone and thank you all for joining us today. Further details about our financial results can be found in our press release, which was distributed yesterday afternoon together with a summarized presentation. Both are available on our website in the Investor Relations section. Let me remind you that during this call we will share forward-looking information and statements, which are based on variables and assumptions that are uncertain. At this time, it is my pleasure to participate in today’s call together with Roberto Olivares, Sigma’s Chief Financial Officer. I will provide a brief update related to Alfa Sigma’s transformation, and Roberto will discuss Sigma’s results. The second quarter was marked by a pivotal moment on April 7. This was the first trading day of Alfa Sigma as a pure play packaged food company.

Over the last 12 months, we have witnessed a substantial improvement in the company’s valuation, narrowing the gap against international branded high protein food peers. This positive trend has been supported by the complete simplification of Alfa’s corporate structure, solid operating performance, and rapidly growing recognition as a consumer-focused company. We are also excited to see our full focus on Sigma being reflected in a formal transition to consumer staples within the Global Industry Classification Standard and an expanding consumer-specialized sell-side coverage to further highlight our new identity. Preparations for a corporate rebranding that will redefine the Alfa name and ticker are well underway. Once completed, we will call an extraordinary shareholders meeting to obtain the necessary approvals and implement these changes. We look forward to continuing this rewarding journey by raising awareness of Alfa Sigma as a highly attractive investment alternative in the global food sector.

I will now turn the call over to Roberto to discuss Sigma’s results.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Thank you. We’re pleased to once again deliver consistent results driven by the disciplined execution in the current environment of global uncertainty. There is widespread low consumer confidence resulting from various geopolitical issues and economic concerns affecting sentimental scale. Diversification and business culture have played a key role navigating this year’s highly fluid environment. Our multi-segment brand portfolio, multinational footprint, multi-channel distribution, and global supply chain are some components of our business model that mitigate risk in volatile conditions. Our teams have done a remarkable job of leveraging Sigma’s unique strengths to stay ahead of consumer needs while adapting swiftly to remain aligned with expectations. The positive sequential momentum observed in second quarter sales, comparable EBITDA, and comparable EBITDA margin expansion give us confidence in our ability to overcome Chart 10 headwinds and continue advancing in all regions.

Implicit in this positive EBITDA margin trend are targeted actions and core capabilities that enable us to counter higher than expected protein input costs, primarily turkey, which is being affected by avian flu. It is important to highlight that turkey price reference in the United States and Europe were more than 50% higher year over year during second quarter 2025 and remain subject to upward pressure. To further illustrate the cost headwinds we have faced this year, our largest region, Mexico, has effectively offset more than $200 million associated with higher raw material costs year to date. As referenced, this figure is equivalent to 66% of Mexico’s accumulated EBITDA. In sum, similar efforts to address raw material cost pressures across all regions have contributed to delivering the second highest accumulated comparable EBITDA in Sigma’s history, $468 million.

More importantly, consistent with our full year guidance, we remain focused on sustaining this positive sequential trend into the second half of 2025. Moving on to key highlights by region. Starting with Mexico, the region posted an outstanding 12% currency-neutral sales growth with resilient volume as targeted revenue management actions and other initiatives advanced during the second quarter to address cost pressures. Even so, peso-denominated EBITDA was down 5% versus Q2 2024. This was primarily due to softer demand in the food service channel and a product mix impact in other channels. Next, the United States achieved record quarterly volume and revenues driven by national and Hispanic brands with EBITDA of $56 million, the highest second quarter figure in the region’s history.

We were pleased to see resilient performance in Hispanic brands despite the rise in immigration-related events during the quarter, which caused certain disruptions in specialty store traffic and operations. This is supported by the growing penetration that our Hispanic brands are achieving across complementary mainstream channels. A final comment related to the Americas: our Latin America region reached all-time high currency-neutral revenues driven by volume and prices increasing 1% respectively. By contrast, EBITDA was down 19% in local currencies, reflecting persistent raw material cost pressures and lagging operational effectiveness relative to other regions on an absolute basis. Most of this EBITDA reduction was concentrated in Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic. Targeted revenue management initiatives and additional margin recovery efforts are on the way.

In Europe, currency-neutral revenues were flat year on year as higher prices offset a 2% decrease in volume associated with the residual effects of the torrent and plant flooding. The temporary plan to distribute production across other plants and trusted co-packers is helping mitigate most of the short-term impact on volume, which is a key area of focus for us to maintain a healthy presence in the market. At the same time, the European team is working diligently with multiple parties involved in obtaining reimbursements for the flood damages and putting together a comprehensive plan to recover the lost capacity in Spain. The second quarter benefited significantly from our progress in the damage reimbursement process. EBITDA included a non-recurring gain of €68 million comprised of €56 million for property damages and €11 million for business interruption.

In total, we have received €88 million since the unfortunate flooding event in the fourth quarter of 2024. Insurance reimbursements will be the main source of funding for our permanent production recovery projects in Spain. As recently announced, these projects involve building a new packaged meat plant in Valencia with an estimated investment of €134 million and expanding capacity at our most modern facility, La Boreva, with an estimated investment of €23 million. These investments are designed to recover production capacity while reinforcing competitiveness and building upon profitability improvement efforts in the region. Resuming normal operation in Spain is a priority, as is continuing to expand our underlying EBITDA margin in Europe. This concludes my comments by Rio regarding our financial position and select cash flow items. We maintain a strong consolidated net debt to EBITDA ratio of 2.6 times at the close of the second quarter.

Looking at our year-to-date change in net debt, net working capital and CapEx represent the largest uses of cash. Notably, investments in net working capital decreased significantly quarter on quarter, while CapEx deployment accelerated as planned. Lastly, Alfa Sigma shareholders received dividends totaling $84 million during the second quarter, which were aligned with dividends paid by Sigma to Alfa in the same period. As we move into the second half of the year, we remain focused on executing our priorities effectively, addressing higher than expected raw material cost pressures, meeting guidance expectations, and accelerating the recognition of Alfa’s new identity centered around Sigma. We are excited about the opportunities ahead and remain committed to delivering value for all our stakeholders. Let’s open the call for questions, please.

Alfa Sigma Executive, Alfa Sigma: Sure, happy to do that, Roberto. Operator, could you please instruct participants to queue for questions? Roberto and I will take your questions on Alfa Sigma.

Hernán F. Lozano, Vice President of Investor Relations, Alfa Sigma: Dear participant, if you’d like to ask a question about Alfa and Sigma, please use the raise your hand button of your Zoom tool.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Our first question comes from Renata Fonseca Cabral Sturani of Citi. Please go ahead.

Renata Fonseca Cabral Sturani, Analyst, Citi: Hi everyone. Thank you so much for taking my questions. My first one is related to raw material prices you comment on in the release. I just would like to understand how you see the impact. Many things happened during the quarter, including a change in terms of effects. It would be really useful if you can shed any color on this. I’ll make my second question after that. Thank you.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Thank you, Renata, for your questions. Let me first make the comment about the particular raw materials. As described in my initial remarks, prices of turkey have continued to go up during the quarter, and we do expect that pressure to continue in the U.S. market in the second half of the year. Having said that, we have been increasingly bringing more raw material from Brazil and other regions, and that has also mitigated some of the COGS impacts. In regards to FX, it has been the opposite. During the second quarter of 2025, we saw the peso appreciate almost all of the quarter. If the peso continues to be at the same level that we’re at right now, around $18.50, we do expect to have a decrease in COGS in the second half of the year.

Let me just mention that particularly in the second quarter P&L, we do have some higher cost inventory that was bought at a higher FX. We expect that to be consumed, all done in maybe the first months of the third quarter.

Renata Fonseca Cabral Sturani, Analyst, Citi: Awesome. That’s really, really helpful. Thank you so much. For the second question, I would like to ask about specifically Mexico. We saw in terms of top line and margins for this quarter. If you can help us, even if qualitatively, to say how is going the beginning of July or your perspectives for the second half of the year, both in top line and in terms of margins.

Sure.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Let me first cover the margin part again as I already mentioned with the effects at the current level that we’re right now, we do expect to have a stronger margin the second half of the year. In regards to top line, we have been very cautious about the price increases that we have done recently. Let me split the business in two. First, the retail business top line has been solid or has been resilient. It depends on the category. In some of the categories we’re gaining some volume growth. In others we’re resilient or flat. In regards to food service, particularly in Mexico, we see softer hospitality dynamics coming mainly from tourism in some of the tourist places in Mexico. We’re working or our main focus right now is to gain some volume momentum in the food service to recover some of that volume.

Renata Fonseca Cabral Sturani, Analyst, Citi: All right, thank you so much. Very good column.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Thank you, Renata. Our next question comes from Ricardo L. Alves of Morgan Stanley. Yes, sir, go ahead.

Hello everybody. Hernán, Roberto, I hope you can hear me. Thanks for the opportunity. It’s a pleasure to talk to you. Very strong in the top line in Mexico. I was wondering, the 12% pricing, can we zoom into that and perhaps talk about the component of pricing and mix just so that we can understand how we can think about unit revenue as we go into the second half? I just wanted to ask a follow-up on Mexico margins into the second half related to the question that Renata was asking, just to make sure if I understood correctly.

Because if we have this scenario of a very resilient top line performance in Mexico and at the same time the Mexican peso has been more supportive, is it indeed the case that we could expect the margins to improve significantly from here in Mexico, assuming that the top line remains resilient? The first part of the question, just to get some more color on the 12% on the unit revenue front. I know that we have been discussing the channel exposure, traditional being more relevant. Just trying to separate a bit what is pricing, what is mix, that would be helpful, and then how we think about margins into the second half. My last question, in the U.S., the performance of Sigma in the U.S. had surprised us to the upside over the past couple of quarters, really.

When we look at the very marginal information on scanner data, we notice a deceleration. We noticed, for instance, particularly in Franks, that private label has become more relevant. It’s growing in the double digits. I just wanted to get some color into the U.S., maybe more specifically in Franks, if you are seeing the consumer that is more selective or if you see a pricing environment that is a little tougher, just so that we can get your perspective for the next couple of quarters, or if maybe this is just a one-off and you do have some strategies in terms of pricing to make front for this eventual more price-sensitive consumer in the U.S. in the second half. Again, appreciate your time. Thank you so much.

Thank you. Thank you, Ricardo, for your question. Let me go one by one. The first one relating to pricing in Mexico, the 12% increase, you asked about the components of that pricing. Let me first say that obviously a 12% increase, the 12% increase is an average of the region. If you see first by channel and then by different categories, we have increased for some categories and for some channels a significant amount. Particularly all those products related to turkey, we have had the price increases more than 20% in the case of food service. That’s also another reason why volume has been a little bit more soft in food service because we have increased 16% prices in food service in Mexican pesos. There’s a mix between the different categories that obviously is impacting some elasticity. You talk about pricing and mix.

We have seen some product mix impact regarding some of the categories. Given the substantial price increases in some of the turkey lines, we have seen people moving from turkey to pork or even within the same turkey line, people moving from breast to turkey ham since those products are more affordable. There’s still going to the Mexico margin, although effects as you mentioned is at a level that we were not expecting right now. We do continue to see some pressures in the turkey environment in the second half of the year. It will depend on those pressures and the effects to see if the margin improvement, the sequential margin improvement that we as of right now see in the second half of the year, how big is that improvement.

Let me just say that we’re obviously following very closely the raw material market, bringing product from other regions, trying to reduce the COGS as much as possible and doing some targeted revenue management initiatives to improve the margin for the second half of the year. In regards to the U.S., you mentioned some data about Nielsen. Let me just mention that Nielsen for us is a proxy. We cover more channels than those that are represented in the Nielsen data. The U.S. has maintained a resilient volume. Let me just talk about the national brand business because you talk about France. Quarter on quarter, we saw sales of the national brand business increasing 17% on a sequential basis. That has a lot to do with the promotion and a promotion that we are right now running in some of our big clients.

We do expect that the promotions extend into some months of the third quarter. In regards to France, particularly our position in the U.S. market is that we participate as a smart choice brand. Although private label has penetrated a little bit more in the market, we still own the preference of our consumers in that sector, and the retailers are helping us a lot to continue capturing that market.

Much appreciated. Roberto, thanks for the detailed answer.

Thank you, Ricardo. Our next question comes from Felipe Ucros Nunez of Scotiabank. Please, sir, go ahead.

Hernán F. Lozano, Vice President of Investor Relations, Alfa Sigma: Thanks, operator. Good afternoon, guys. Very strong price mix in Mexico, as it was already mentioned. You broke that segmentation between price and mix very well. I was impressed that the volumes barely flinched. That’s happening at a moment where there’s a lot of concerns about the state of the consumer in Mexico. I’m wondering if you can just give us some more details around this. Perhaps it’s an understanding of how these protein categories work and perhaps when you see increases that are as sharp as you saw, you do see elasticity in the category, but it’s just that the consumer moves to other protein categories and you just get the volume somewhere else and the mix in your business changes. Is that how it usually works? The other side of that question, again, trying to understand the industry a little better, how do you usually behave?

What we’ve seen historically in branded food and beverage categories is that after commodities come back down, there are no real immediate price reversals. You see kind of a margin increase across companies that participate in these branded goods. In protein, you see very sharp commodity moves. Just wondering if, with turkeys, let’s say the price comes later on, do you attempt to try to keep that price mix high or how does that usually behave for you guys? Thanks. Thanks a lot.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Thank you. Thank you, Felipe, for your question. Maybe just let me comment that we take a very cautious approach regarding revenue management. There’s always a sweet spot in regards to protecting margin for today and in the long term and gaining market share. Let me say there’s some efforts that we have done to be more targeted. Whenever we increase prices affecting maybe some lines, some products, that elasticity is lower. Whenever it is the contrary, as we mentioned, the cost goes down, we take some opportunities to give discounts whenever we see the more value. It’s a very coordinated approach between the marketing team, the trade marketing, the revenue management team. We do that in all regions to keep, again, volume strong and to keep margin strong. In regards to the concerns of the state of the consumer, obviously we take that into consideration whenever we do.

A.

Price increase because we want the consumer to be there in the long term. No, we don’t. Whenever there’s a lot of volatility in raw material or in costs, there’s opportunities for some brands to enter our sector, maybe private labels. We take that a lot into consideration when doing some price increases.

Hernán F. Lozano, Vice President of Investor Relations, Alfa Sigma: That’s very helpful. Thanks a lot for the color, guys.

Alfa Sigma Executive, Alfa Sigma: Thank you, Felipe.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Our next question comes from Juan Enrique Ponce Luiña.

Please, sir, go ahead.

Hi, thank you for taking my question. I have a quick one on Europe. Where do you see the normalized EBITDA margin? Maybe after 2027 when the new plant is ready and before that, do you think that we could expect some type of margin expansion next year and maybe in 2027 as well? Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you, Juan. Sure. Normalized with the margin for 2027, it will be or the expectation will be to be between mid to high single digits or so around 7, 8. That is, that will happen not only with the ongoing business environment that we have, all the efficiencies that we’re looking, but also other strategic projects that we’re analyzing. Obviously, that also will be or will happen if it will normalize the effect of the rebuilding of the plant.

For next year, we do expect to have, if things continue to look as we have seen, we do expect to have a margin improvement versus 2025. Let me make just two comments. First one regarding branded volume in the region. We have seen volume, particularly for some in some of the regions in Spain, for example, that branded volume has increased significantly this year. The other one, this year we have suffered some impact from the fresh meat business due to the dynamics of the industry. Those we do not expect to pull that in the long term. Great. Thank you very much, Roberto. Thank you, Juan. Our next question comes from Fernando Olvera of Bank of America. Please sir, go ahead.

Can you hear me?

Yes, yes.

Yeah, great. Thank you for taking my questions.

I just have one related to volumes, and maybe if you can comment about what is your outlook in the different regions for the second half of the year, and how are you thinking on this compared to your guidance?

Thank you.

Alfa Sigma Executive, Alfa Sigma: Sure.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: Thank you, Fernando. Volume during this quarter was flat, but that comes mainly from significant price increases in Mexico. That obviously has some impact on volume. Europe was 2% below, or if we normalize that versus with the torrent impact, it is around flat and actually has a 2% increase sequentially. In the case of the U.S. and Latin America, we have positive growth in.

Alfa Sigma Executive, Alfa Sigma: In.

Roberto Olivares, Chief Financial Officer, Sigma: In volume in the SEC in the second half of the year of the outlook. We continue to see, let me say, good numbers in terms of volume. I would say between flat and low single digit growth. It will depend obviously if there’s some opportunities or the need to increase some more pricing in the second half of the year. That will have an impact. We see, in general, the dynamics of the industry well. Obviously, there are some concerns about the sentiment, but we have been able to tackle those concerns in most of the regions and have good and solid results in volume.

Okay.

Hernán F. Lozano, Vice President of Investor Relations, Alfa Sigma: There being no further questions, I would like to return the call to management.

Alfa Sigma Executive, Alfa Sigma: Thank you very much everyone for joining us today. Please feel free to reach out if you have any follow up questions, and have a great day.

Hernán F. Lozano, Vice President of Investor Relations, Alfa Sigma: This concludes today’s conference call. You may disconnect.

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