Earnings call transcript: Atkore Q3 2025 beats EPS forecast despite stock drop

Atkore International Group Inc. (ATKR) reported its third-quarter earnings for 2025, surpassing analysts’ expectations with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.63 against a forecast of $1.56. Revenue came in at $735 million, slightly above the anticipated $734.2 million. Despite this performance, the company’s stock fell 21.96% in pre-market trading, reflecting broader market concerns and specific challenges highlighted during the earnings call.

Key Takeaways

• Atkore’s Q3 EPS of $1.63 exceeded expectations by 4.49%.
• Revenue reached $735 million, marking a 2% organic growth.
• Stock price dropped by 21.96% in pre-market trading.
• Full-year EPS guidance set between $6.25 and $6.75.
• Focus on innovation in electrical products and water market investments.

Company Performance

Atkore’s performance in Q3 2025 showed resilience with a 2% organic volume growth in net sales. The company continues to benefit from its strategic emphasis on domestically manufactured electrical products and innovations in metal framing and cable management. Despite mixed sentiment in non-residential construction, Atkore’s positioning in data centers and solar markets remains strong.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $735 million, up with 2% organic growth.
• Earnings per share: $1.63, compared to the forecast of $1.56.
• Adjusted EBITDA: $100 million.
• Year-to-date cash flow from operations: $192 million.

Earnings vs. Forecast

Atkore reported an EPS of $1.63, beating the forecasted $1.56 by 4.49%. Revenue also slightly exceeded expectations, reaching $735 million against a forecast of $734.2 million. This marks a positive deviation from previous quarters, where results were more aligned with forecasts.

Market Reaction

Despite the earnings beat, Atkore’s stock fell by 21.96% to $70.21 in pre-market trading. This significant drop contrasts with the company’s 52-week high of $108.69, highlighting investor concerns over future challenges and market conditions.

Outlook & Guidance

Atkore has set its full-year adjusted EPS guidance between $6.25 and $6.75 and anticipates adjusted EBITDA of $390-$410 million. The company is preparing for approximately $50 million in headwinds for FY 2026 but remains optimistic about growth opportunities in data centers and solar markets.

Executive Commentary

CEO Bill Waltz emphasized the company’s strategic focus and resilience: "Our strength as a company has always come from our strategy, process, and most importantly, our people." He also highlighted ongoing efforts to mitigate anticipated headwinds: "We are actively working to offset the effects of these anticipated headwinds."

Risks and Challenges

• Potential $50 million headwinds in FY 2026.
• Mixed construction sentiment across non-residential categories.
• Challenges in pricing and raw material costs.
• Ongoing tariff impacts on steel and PVC conduit imports.
• Market dynamics affecting volume visibility.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about the retirement of CEO Bill Waltz and its impact on company strategy. Questions also focused on the effects of tariffs and the visibility of future volume growth, reflecting concerns over pricing and raw material cost challenges.

The detailed analysis and forward-looking guidance provided by Atkore in this earnings call underscore the company’s strategic initiatives and the market’s cautious response to its future outlook.

Full transcript - Atkore International Group Inc (ATKR) Q3 2025:

Rob, Conference Operator: Good morning. My name is Rob, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Atkore’s Third Quarter Fiscal Year twenty twenty five Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed in a listen only mode. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Matt Klein, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Matt Klein, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations, Atkore: Thank you, and good morning, everyone. I’m joined today by Bill Waltz, President and CEO John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer and John Pergenzer, Chief Operating Officer and President of Electrical. We will take questions at the conclusion of the call. I would like to remind everyone that during this call, we may make projections or forward looking statements regarding future events or from financial performance of the company. Such statements involve risks and uncertainties such that actual results may differ materially.

Please refer to our SEC filings and today’s press releases, which identify important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections or forward looking statements. In addition, any reference in our discussion today to EBITDA means adjusted EBITDA, and any reference to EPS or adjusted EPS means adjusted diluted earnings per share. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted diluted earnings per share are non GAAP measures. Reconciliations of non GAAP measures and a presentation of the most comparable GAAP measures are available in the appendix to today’s presentation. With that, I’ll turn it over to Bill.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Thanks, Matt, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for our fiscal twenty twenty five third quarter earnings call. Before I address our third quarter results, I want to discuss the announcement made earlier today. I’ve informed the board of my decision to retire from Atkore. After much reflection, I know that now is the time to start a new phase of my life with my family.

I’ve had the privilege of spending twelve years with Atkore, including seven as CEO as part of a forty year career. I’m proud of all the accomplishments that the team has achieved. Although work is never fully complete, it is time for the board to engage their succession planning process. The board supports me in this decision. I am focused on a seamless transition and plan to lead Atkore in my current role until a successor is appointed.

Our strength as a company has always come from our strategy, process, and most importantly, our people, and that will not change. Our Atkore business system is about the team, and I have the utmost confidence in what our teams can achieve going forward. While we are making this announcement today, I am committed as ever to our strategy, our nearly 5,600 employees, and our shareholders until the next CEO is appointed. With that, I’ll turn to our third quarter results starting on slide three. We delivered strong performance in the quarter achieving net sales, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS toward the top end of the ranges we presented in May.

Our net sales of $735,000,000 included 2% organic volume growth. Beyond our volume growth, results were supported by continued productivity gains, particularly in our S and I segment. Year over year declines in average selling prices were in line with our expectations and we are pleased to see a second consecutive quarter of sequential pricing improvement in our steel conduit products. As we started our third quarter this past April, we were just beginning to operate in a new tariff environment. Over the last ninety days, the environment has continued to evolve with multiple modifications to initial tariffs and the introduction of new ones.

Notably, imported steel conduit and PVC conduit volumes have both declined year over year in the third quarter compared to the prior year. As we started the third quarter, the Dodge Momentum Index indicated slowdown in planning activity across several non residential categories. Since then, construction sentiment has been mixed. We’ve observed pockets of strength in certain verticals while other key sectors have been more subdued. Tariffs are influencing not just input costs but also market pricing dynamics and broader demand patterns.

Taking all this into account, we are maintaining our full year adjusted EBITDA midpoint of $400,000,000 and are raising the midpoint of our adjusted EPS to $6.5 reflecting improved visibility and stronger earnings leverage. Looking ahead to FY 2026, we continue to refine our estimates. We anticipate several headwinds, some of which have been previously communicated such as the expected year over year impact from lower selling prices. Others like the broader tariff effects which have both direct and indirect elements have emerged more recently and introduced greater complexity. We expect these pressures to persist into next year and we are actively evaluating various levers to help mitigate their impact.

In closing, I want to thank our teams across the organization for their continued execution and discipline. Their dedication to the Atkore business system remains central to how we deliver value to our customers and shareholders. With that, I’ll turn the call over to John Deitzer to talk through the results from the quarter and our full year outlook.

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: Thank you, Bill, and good morning, everyone. Moving to our consolidated results on slide four. In the third quarter, we achieved net sales of $735,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $100,000,000 Adjusted EPS was 1.63 Turning to slide five and our consolidated bridges. Organic volumes increased 2% compared to the 2024. Average selling prices declined 12% year over year driven primarily by our PVC conduit and steel conduit products.

These year over year price declines for both product categories were expected and as Bill mentioned, we are pleased to report the second consecutive quarter of sequential pricing improvement in our steel conduit products. We also saw sequential pricing improvement across the enterprise including for electrical cable and flexible conduit, mechanical and metal framing products. However, pricing has not kept pace with raw material cost increases. This has been particularly true with respect to copper, which has seen cost volatility for most of the quarter. Moving to slide six, year to date our volume is now up slightly having been flat for the first six months compared to the prior year.

Our year to date volume reflects growth across three product areas. Our metal framing, cable management and construction services has grown low single digits year to date driven by our ongoing focus on construction services as well as cable management. Year to date, our plastic pipe conduit and fittings category is now flat year over year having overcome a mid single digit decline in the 2025. Growth in the third quarter came from our PVC and fiberglass conduit products. Our metal, electrical conduit and fittings product area has grown low single digits year to date having overcome flat volume performance in the first half.

We estimate that demand for domestically made steel conduit has increased due to enacted tariffs on imported steel. Our electrical cable and flexible conduit category also continues to grow, up low single digits year to date, which we believe is in part due to the success of our differentiated products. Turning to slide seven. Adjusted EBITDA margins compressed year over year in our Electrical segment, primarily due to pricing declines related to our PVC and steel conduit products. Adjusted EBITDA margins improved in our S and I segment year over year driven by volume growth and overall better productivity.

The productivity gains were primarily due to better cost management in our North American operations. Turning to slide eight, year to date our business has generated $192,000,000 in cash flow from operations and we’ve received $14,000,000 in proceeds this year from the previously announced divestiture of the Northwest Polymers business and the sale of some excess equipment. We remain committed to executing a balanced capital deployment model with an emphasis on returning cash to shareholders. Our balance sheet is in a strong position with no maturity repayments required until 2028 and a recently refinanced asset based lending agreement remains undrawn contributing to a net leverage ratio of approximately one time. Next on slide nine, we’re maintaining the full year outlook midpoint for adjusted EBITDA.

However, with better line of sight to the fourth quarter, we have narrowed the range and expect full year adjusted EBITDA between $390,000,000 to $410,000,000 We are also pleased to be increasing the midpoint of our full year outlook for adjusted EPS and now expect to achieve adjusted EPS within the range of $6.25 and $6.75 With this, we expect our fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of $75,000,000 to $95,000,000 Our adjusted EPS is expected to be in the range of $1.05 and $1.35 We are also adjusting our outlook for our full year tax rate. As a reminder, the impairment recorded in the second quarter will reduce our full year tax rate, which we now expect to be in the range of 19 to 21%. This means we’d expect our tax rate in the fourth quarter to be within a range of 20% to 23%. As we mentioned earlier, the forward looking sentiment on construction activity appears mixed depending on the end market. Through our first nine months, we have grown just under 1%.

For the full year, we would expect our volume to be flat to slightly positive. With that, I’ll turn it over to John Pergenzer.

John Pergenzer, Chief Operating Officer and President of Electrical, Atkore: Thank you, John. Moving to slide 10. As Bill touched on in the beginning of the call, the topic of tariffs remains fluid with no definitive certainty on their duration or size. As we manage the business, we recognize that tariffs have both a direct and indirect impact on our company. A central theme supporting tariffs is an increase in onshoring of manufacturing across The U.

S. There have been positive indicators that onshoring investment momentum is starting to pick up. However, these efforts take time with various factors impacting the rate of change. A potential direct benefit from tariffs for Atkore primarily centers on our ability to recapture lost market share from imports for certain product categories over time. This is especially true for our steel conduit products.

We believe this will occur over time as market demand shifts back toward more domestically sourced products. Since last quarter, the administration announced several changes to existing tariffs and new tariffs. The most relevant change for Atkore was the increase to the original steel and aluminum tariff on Mexico and Canada from 25% to 50%. The recently announced 50% tariff on imported copper that became effective on August 1 is not expected to negatively impact Atkore due to our domestic supply partners. As we look beyond FY 2025 to FY 2026, we are estimating various factors that are likely to impact us.

As we have previously communicated, due to the rate of change in our average selling prices for our PVC conduit products in FY 2025, we expect to experience a year over year headwind into FY 2026. We expect that unfavorable impact to occur throughout the duration of the year starting with our exit rate in FY 2025, but having a lesser impact as the year progresses. The recently expanded aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50% creates a new cost challenge for the market, which could also slow demand activity for our products. The combination of these factors suggests there are approximately $50,000,000 of unmitigated headwinds in FY 2026. Although we have not finalized our full year guidance for FY 2026, we are actively working to offset the effects of these anticipated headwinds.

Now turning to slide 11. As we’ve often said, the electrical industry is a great place to be. Our strategy addresses items that we are focused on today while also looking toward the future. We remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial profile that enables us to return capital to shareholders while also pursuing strategic actions that enhance our portfolio of domestically manufactured electrical products. Our teams continue to drive operational excellence through the Atkore business system, our disciplined data driven approach to managing growth, productivity, and customer value.

Despite near term challenges, positioning in key electrical end markets gives us confidence in our ability to grow volume over the mid to long term. Today and in the future, Atkore is providing comprehensive solutions to deploy, isolate, and protect critical electrical infrastructure over the long term while on a mission to be the customer’s first choice by providing unmatched quality, delivery, and value to help our customers achieve their goals. With that, we sincerely thank you for joining our call and for your interest in our company. Now we’ll turn it to the operator to open the line for questions.

Rob, Conference Operator: Your first question today comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz from Citi. Your line is open.

Piyush, Analyst, Citi: Good morning, guys. This is Dush on behalf of Andy.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yeah. Hey, good morning.

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: Good morning, Piyush.

Piyush, Analyst, Citi: Congrats, Bill, on the retirement enhancement. Well deserved.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Well, thank you, Payush, and look forward to still talking with you for a while here, but enjoy.

Piyush, Analyst, Citi: Absolutely. So, I just wanted to touch on volume growth. It seems that forecasting volumes has been a little bit challenging and I understand it’s been a dynamic macro environment. But based on your conversations with your customers and the mega projects and the mega trends that you have talked about, do you have enough visibility on demand trends to provide some puts and takes on your volume expectations for ’26?

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: I

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: John, do you want to like, I I have a feel. Let me do it this way. So end markets like data centers are exploding, so that should be good from a vertical. And, also, specifically for us, and this is difference between, let’s say, the, know, fiscal q two, fiscal q three, when we get into what we call global mega projects working specifically with a customer, that’s lumpier. So, you know, like timing of jobs for the last quarter or two, as you wrap up jobs and start another large projects have been a little slower from year over year comp.

But us talking to, I’ll just say, very well known global data center driven data companies, you know, we’re optimistic for the future there. Solar, same thing. You can go check with, you know, the people we sell to, and they’re optimistic. And I think from there, other than residential, you know, reasonable markets going forward. So, you know, we can get into our quarter and so forth.

But, Piyush, I you know, we’re not giving estimates for next year. That’s when I first mentioned John Neisser, but it should be reasonable growth going into next year.

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: Yeah. I I totally agree with Bill here. I think we had a little bit of choppiness in our international business from some of the mega projects rolling off and new ones starting potentially as we look forward. So I think we felt good there. I mean, there is a we’ve called that out before.

So but in the North American business, I think, you know, that’s performed as we expected or or, you know, somewhat in line with some expectations at the end market level. But the the timing of it has been a little bit choppy here, between some of the months. So but looking forward, I think we’re pretty you know, that low single digit type environment seems to be pretty reasonable.

Piyush, Analyst, Citi: Got it. Helpful. And just like touching on, your water end market, I think you have talked about increasing focus on water, but seems that the water end markets are a bit mixed here. Maybe expand on the demand trends that you are seeing across the end market and is still is water still a vertical where you’re planning on investing?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yeah. Well, I’d say at this stage, majority, there’s always a couple of things to finish. But the investments we’ve made now, it’s just growing within customers, and that seems to be going on pace. Again, as we called out in previous quarters, we whatever word you want to use, fired may be too strong a word, but, you know, specific customers that were resellers or retail oriented and, you know, plumbing and things like that tied to residential is down. But where we’re focused, the municipal is picking up.

We’re filling that void year over year, and I think it should be a reasonable market for us going forward.

Piyush, Analyst, Citi: Got you. Helpful. One last one on HDPE. I think last quarter you mentioned potential for increasing competition from satellites. How has that dynamic evolved so far?

And how is the current inventory in the channel? And if you have started to see these money taking making its way into the projects?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yeah. So I’ll start with anybody jump in here. Again, I should probably turn it over to our COO that’s closer to these things. But so to last quarter, I don’t think with the one big beautiful bill and everything else that, you know, is still the option to use satellites. Somebody can give me more details on the specific, you know, parts of what laws, but they’re you know, the states are required to do the most effective thing out there.

So that hasn’t changed one way or the other. I’m not aware, but maybe it’s my knowledge of specific jobs we won with the BEADS Act. But I do think you can triangulate this with, you know, again, other people in the industry that overall fiber is starting to go up because of the data center growth and things like that. So long winded answer, Payush, that nothing’s really changed from our last quarter guidance other than we are starting to see the business volumes pick up as we go forward. So again, another should be good thing over the longer term.

Piyush, Analyst, Citi: Very helpful. Thank you, guys.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Thank you, Payush.

Rob, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Deane Dray from RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Deane Dray, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Good morning, Deane.

Deane Dray, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Hey, Phil. I also add my congrats on the the announcement. I know you’re still in the seat, but appreciate everything you’ve done here, and congrats.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Dean, thank you. And, yeah, I’m still in the seat, and nothing changes. But but, yeah, working with you, obviously, through Atkore and previous careers, it’s been a great relationship.

Deane Dray, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Absolutely. So can we start with you’ve gave you’ve given some good updates here on the tariff kind of from a a high level. Can you take us down to the ground level, especially on the steel conduit imports from Mexico? So how has that changed with the introduction of the tariffs? Has that stopped the flow of Mexican steel conduit?

And then same question for the PVC that was coming in from Latin America. Just has that stopped? Or can you size any of that for us, please?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yeah. So I’ll do both here. Again, I think I should look over at John. Any of us John Perkins or any of us could answer these questions. But I’ll mix the two together to go overall for the year, and I’m using fiscal year just to even go back farther through October, they’re for the year to date for both, they’re either flat to maybe up 2%.

We’re at that noise level that I would call flat, but, again, before someone says, oh, the one was up 2%. Now the key thing to your point, and then I’ll give caveats, Dean, is in this last fiscal quarter, both were down significant double digits. So when so what does that mean? I would say well over 20%, maybe getting up to 30% down for the quarter. Only caveat to that is what no one would know is, obviously, I think the tariffs are working.

But also in the beginning of the year when after president Trump was elected and we talked, did some people buy up and they’re burning through inventories and so forth? So how much is tariff? How much is prebuy? But either way, the tariffs I think especially with steel conduit, as John Briginsier mentioned in his opening our opening remarks, up 50% is having an impact. PVC at 10% for most countries, and you gotta realize from my perception that what people claim for their imported value can be subjective.

So, you know, is that having it, like, let’s call it a 5% CEO math here impact. But both are down and tariffs in those areas, especially steel, seem to be effective.

Deane Dray, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Got it. And then second question, can you take us through and update us on your demand visibility as it stands today? You know, at one time, there was a meaningful backlog that has all been burned off, I would presume. So are you down to, like, a two week visibility? Just kinda give us a sense there because I know that that shortened time frame adds more volatility, and you, you know, you have to gauge, you know, what’s going on on the construction markets.

But just frame for us the the earnings visibility in any dimension that you could.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yeah. I’ll try to, and, again, team jump in here if need be. But, again, Dean, our backlog is two weeks or so, give or take. Because, again, we aspire to ship in four days. So by definition, if we’re you know, now there’s some make to order products and so forth.

That really hasn’t changed much out with the customers. Again, we do. This is more anecdotal, but talking to all of our customer base, inventories are average with distributors to slightly lower, and there’s lots of reasons One is we’ve commented in our prepared remarks, things like PVC pricing has dropped. So distributors on thinner margins don’t want to be buying a product at a high price, lower margin, try to pass that one.

So logical there. And then the last month has been pretty chaotic in the copper market when I think it was July 7, July 8 that President Trump announced he was planning on a tariff copper. Don’t lock me into these prices, but copper just trumped from the mid fours, let’s say, almost $6 a pound, maybe not quite there. But probably wise contractors, wise distributors waited to hold off, and that’s just what’s announced on what the copper tariffs were on last week on August 1. So, you know, there, they’re probably holding a lighter inventory.

And the last data insight talking from customers, and, again, each customer may have a slightly different view of this. But in the utility market, my perception is that the end demand has been good. In other words, contractors installing, but at least some of our distributors have mentioned, you know, they were still burning off inventory that’s now throughout. So again, slight more optimism for us in the utility market as we go forward from this date, but the market had a manufacturer or distributor may have been slightly less.

Deane Dray, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Okay. That’s helpful. And just last one. Lot of good detail as always on pricing. And could you just step back and give us a perspective of any surprises in the quarter on how pricing played out?

It was actually both for PVC and steel a little bit better than what we had been estimating, and now you got two quarters of better steel pricing. But just from your perspective, what has surprised you, if anything, about how pricing is playing out from here?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yeah. So I’ll start with Dean and kinda echo your comments with a little bit more color. To your point, since, you know, our and, again, team, correct. But since our January earnings call, you know, the price guide, price versus cost has been right in the middle of our estimate. So no surprises.

It ties with our numbers and reaffirming guide and raising EPS and everything else there. To your point, metal conduit probably slightly better than we expected. PVC maybe slightly better than we expected. But then as John Perkins are in the, you know, our earnings announcements here earlier, some of the aluminum at 50%, we import aluminum from Canada. So that has kinda hit us there purely because of the fact that, you know, we’re paying the tariff.

And at least today, we have not seen there’s a lot of chaos, as I just mentioned, with both copper and aluminum. But we don’t feel it’s hard to measure this to go which is wider than what the market’s doing. But we don’t feel like we’re able to recoup the aluminum cost today.

Deane Dray, Analyst, RBC Capital Markets: Got it. Thank you.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Thanks, Deane.

Rob, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of David Tarantino from KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

David Tarantino, Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets: Good morning, everyone. And Bill, congrats on the upcoming retirement.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Cool. Thanks, David.

David Tarantino, Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets: Maybe to put a finer point on the fiscal twenty twenty six comments. Could you walk us through generally how you’re thinking about the underlying assumptions within the $50,000,000 headwinds? Maybe walk through PVC steel and what looks to be bubbling up aluminum headwinds? And what do you think the mitigating actions would look like? I think you mentioned that this was unmitigated Yes.

I’ll

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yes. Great question, David, obviously. And then I’ll start and John Dietscher, if there’s any again, it’s the key caveat here is we wanted to give some feel for next year now versus waiting to November as we talk to, you know, different shareholders and models to go, hey. Let’s at least think through some of this. But we’re not here to give guidance that we would or specificity in November.

So that said, as we’ve called out literally in our November guide of last year, our January guide that we should, shareholders in the company, expect year over year headwinds for things like PVC purely because as pricing dropped this year, it’s a much lower starting off point even if PVC pricing held for all of next year. So rough numbers without breaking out, unless John Deicher wants to get this level of specificity, but I doubt it, is we’re probably and these are estimates here, but they’re probably looking, let’s say, at $70,000,000 of year over year just mathematically as pricing has dropped this year without calling out which commodity. You kind of called out the OPVC down. Steel conduit is still down at the moment. But with two quarters, and we’re expecting three quarters this quarter here sequential improvement, that could be a slight uptick as we go into next year, beyond that getting so specific.

And then at this stage to go, you know, hey. John Pergenzer mentioned 50,000,000 or and, you know, on page two of the deck or whatever page I spoke to, had a $50,000,000 there. Assuming normal productivity, as John Dietser and I just mentioned, normal 2%, 3% volume growth for next year. Now as we also mentioned, obviously, we’re working hard now on every and any facet of how do we get more productivity, how do we get more volume, what other cost controls we could do. Obviously, we’re analyzing things like we sold one or two small businesses, you know, this year and going as there are other things we can do to create more shareholder value.

So at this stage though, David, that is as much as we can dimensionalize something to comments even John Perkins made, it’s hard in this current environment, tariffs changing all around up and down to be any more precise than that.

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: Yeah. I’m totally aligned here with Bill, David. There’s There’s a lot of volatility on certain items whether we’ve seen that even just play out here in the month recently with copper, where it spiked close to $6 a pound and dropped pretty significantly. The net headwinds we’re expecting are right around $50,000,000 but that includes some level of our normal productivity improvement and volume expectation to get us back to that net 50,000,000 We probably to Bill’s point, we have a variety of headwinds in excess of that. And so there are the normal measures here to kind of get us back to the net 50, is the expectation into next year.

So, we wanted to try to get ahead of that communication if we could.

David Tarantino, Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay, great. Thank you. That’s helpful. And then maybe just to dig into steel just a little bit more. It sounds like the import pressures are beginning to relax and pricing is improving sequentially.

So what would give you the confidence that pricing trends are bottoming out and heading to more sustainable improvement?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Well, let’s say it’s this way, David. Let me maybe correct. You’re correct with steel conduit. And as I mentioned with, I think it was Dean’s question, PVC imports seem to be down. But on the same hand, whether it’s again, it’s hard to always factor what’s driving things.

But with domestic competition and so forth, PVC pricing, you know, we’re still looking forward, it’s estimates, but we’ll continue to go down here at least through the end of the year and probably some into next year. Again, we’re not at that level. So I just wanna level set that. Now for the products, yeah, it’s not rapidly going up with steel, but steel conduit. You know, we had two quarters of sequential increases in our, you know, margins, and we’re thinking that margins will go up again, you know, what we’ve seen so far for the July.

Hopefully, I answered your question, David.

David Tarantino, Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets: That’s helpful. Then maybe if I could sneak one more in. Could you just refresh us on how we should be thinking about capital allocation, just particularly around the share buyback pause this quarter both near and long term?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yes. So to our guide here, the 150,000,000 nothing’s really changed. Let’s put it this way. We spent $100,000,000 Somebody could debate, we have done 25,000,000 in the last quarter, 25,000,000 in the next quarter, or spent I say spent it all, but got to $1.50 or done more. But we, without there’s no commitment to anything, but our guide still is to spend 150,000,000 this year.

And beyond that, we had not met with the board. I mean, I would think stock buyback will always be a strong part of our thing, but we just haven’t done a capital allocation for next year to give a range for next year yet.

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: Yeah. Align there. I think in terms of the the framework, though, I mean, we’ve talked about this for a while. You know, the capital expenditures are a key part of the you know, from a capital allocation perspective there, the dividend, share repurchases and M and A. I mean, have always kind of been the four pillars of our capital allocation model.

As we get to November and moving on, we’ll give an update how those expectations look for ’26. But those have been the key components of our capital allocation framework, David.

David Tarantino, Analyst, KeyBanc Capital Markets: Okay. Great. Thanks, guys.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yes. Thank you, David.

Rob, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Chris Dankert from Loop Capital. Your line is open.

Chris Dankert, Analyst, Loop Capital: Hey, good morning. And just echo the congratulations again here, Bill. I guess just first question here, as far as the impact of the lost IRA tax credits on kind of next twelve month earnings, I know it’s fairly small, but is that included in

Piyush, Analyst, Citi: the $50,000,000 headwind?

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: You were breaking up there for a second, Chris. Can you mention that again?

Chris Dankert, Analyst, Loop Capital: Yeah. Apologies. Just on the IRA tax credit, you know, that’s going away, I believe, here. Is that headwind included in that $50,000,000 you called out of headwinds for 26?

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: Yes. I’ll take a step back. I mean, think we try to dimension that on one of the slides. I think the from our perspective, on the relevant portions of the Inflation Reduction Act, I think are maintaining at least here in the near to midterm. There might be some longer term dynamics around accelerating into the late 2020s and things like that or 2030s.

But I think the near to midterm, our understanding or current operating assumption is that the tax credits for the solar torque tubes are largely intact here in the near to midterm. So we had some modest headwinds. I think the dynamics more from our volume with that market this year around where solar credits had a modest slight impact, I think we called out on one of the volume bridges along the way this year. But the the operating plan,

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: I think, is by and large the same with that one. Yeah. Or I know your question was specifically, Chris, around the or at least I perceive the torque to tax credit. But for again, if I didn’t mention one of the earlier questions, for the market itself, it’s it’s always spotty job by job. I don’t wanna be speaking for our customers.

But with or without the recent different bills and legislation, our voice of customers, solar, without even tax credits, is optimistic. I’m speaking for them, so to speak. But just from the standpoint of they do have good logs, there’s a lot of stats they can tell you that still they can start up a new energy source quicker than any other form of energy. And, obviously, I don’t think anybody, hopefully, in The US is debating the extreme need for energy as we continue to drive data centers and things like that. So my personal view from talking with customers and so forth is that solar, like almost any form of energy, will grow above well above GDP going forward.

Chris Dankert, Analyst, Loop Capital: Got it. Thank you for that. So I guess the only other question I’d have on that particular point is, if the market is still growing nicely, how do the margins in that business look for Atkore? That’s still an attractive market going forward after adjusting for all the moving parts here?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yes, I think so. Especially going forward, what we talked about, which I hesitate to bring up again, but it’s more about productivity in our factories running well. So as we look, again, I don’t wanna get down to each customer, but as customers have talked to us about 2026 and so forth, our productivity is good, our throughput, our scrap is good. So it’s those type of things that I think are in our control, Chris. And, you know, the volume comes like we expected.

It should be a good market going or good vertical, however you wanna say it for us going forward.

Chris Dankert, Analyst, Loop Capital: Got it. Well, thanks so much for the color.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yes. Thank you.

Rob, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Chris Moore from CJS Securities. Your line is open.

Will, Analyst, CJS Securities: Hi, this is Will on for Chris. Can you just add any color or talk about any puts and takes to free cash flow generation in FY 2025 versus FY 2024? Thanks.

John Deitzer, Chief Financial Officer, Atkore: Yes, absolutely. So good question. Well, we had a little bit of dynamics ending on the twenty seventh here, versus the twenty eighth, and and we have some, AR that that comes through. So I think you kinda noticed that. I think someone else had kinda called that out from a free cash flow, so a little bit weaker.

That being said, we do anticipate inventories have been coming down slightly. That’s probably an opportunity as we look forward to continue to make sure that we can optimize our inventory. We’ve been trying to add, whether it’s to support the service centers or some of these other initiatives, selectively over the past, let’s call it eighteen months. But that’s probably an opportunity as we look forward into 2026 that we can continue to improve free cash flow generation. But some of those AR dynamics that we showed ending on the June 27 have largely kind of played themselves out into July and August, and I’m pretty pleased here.

So I think we just had a little bit of a timing element here right at the June. But I think we’ll be back on track with some of the expectations of the free cash flow generation or the cash from ops generation really as we look forward into the fourth quarter.

Will, Analyst, CJS Securities: Thank you very much.

Rob, Conference Operator: Your next question comes from the line of Justin Clare from ROTH Capital Partners. Your line is open.

Matt Klein, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations, Atkore0: Hey, guys. Thanks for taking the questions here. So I wanted to ask about the headwind that you had mentioned moving into fiscal twenty twenty six here. Wondering if you could just speak to how much of that headwind is really a function of just the pricing decline that you’ve already experienced in fiscal twenty twenty five versus the anticipation of further price declines in 2026? And then I know raw materials and the increased cost in aluminum is also a factor there.

So wondering if you could just maybe elaborate on the different factors.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yes. So a great question, Justin, obviously. I’m going to dimensionalize to just a small degree because, again, we’ll give more specificity in November. But I think the the majority, now whether that’s 51% or 85%, I’m not dimensionalizing, is the year over year. In other words, to go, hey.

If we ended flat in September, we would still have a large number. And, that hopefully should not be news to anybody going back to November or January discussions. But from there, I we haven’t dimensionalized to go, hey. Could some products still go down more? Or to your point, calling out the aluminum tariff that that specific niches doesn’t seem to be working for us.

But at this stage, again, without this not November and giving next year’s guide, I would think steel conduit should be up year over year. And, again, all these things are qualified with, you know, with the administration, what they do. Do they change tariffs? Do they give a quota before tariffs? So that’s why it’s like we wanna give as much guide or feelings as we can, but it’s just it’s as you can appreciate, things change maybe weekly with administration and so forth.

But hopefully, it answers. I think a lot is the with the impact we’ve already seen this year.

Matt Klein, Vice President of Treasury and Investor Relations, Atkore0: Got it. No, that’s And then just wanted to follow-up on steel here. So import volumes have declined. Wondering if you could just speak to the potential you see to recapture some market share in steel conduit and how much that affects your volume assumptions going forward here?

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Yes. I think there’s adjustments spot on. I do think and again, it’s not going to be crazy. It’s the steel conduit other than somewhat driven by maybe data centers is more one of our more steady GDP ish product lines compared to things like metal framing or what we’re doing with specific initiatives and so forth. But, yeah, I would hope over time, Aspire, whatever word you wanna use, that we as assuming that the importers continue to do a couple of things.

One, just less volume coming in or they you know, we less ability to undercut because they are paying, you know, that markup with margins no matter what they claim as imported value will help us continue to see the margins that we just spoke about and share go up as we move forward. So yes. And

Rob, Conference Operator: this concludes the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the call back over to Bill Waltz for closing remarks.

Bill Waltz, President and CEO, Atkore: Thank you. Let me take a moment to summarize my three key takeaways from today’s discussion. First, Atkore had a solid third quarter of financial performance. Second, we are maintaining our full year 2025 outlook midpoint for adjusted EBITDA and raising our outlook for adjusted EPS. Finally, it has been and continues to be my honor to serve in this role, and I look forward to supporting Atkore during this time of transition over the upcoming months.

With that, thank you for your support and interest in our company. This concludes the call for today.

Rob, Conference Operator: This concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect.

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