Earnings call transcript: Evolution Petroleum Q4 2025 sees steady revenue

Evolution Petroleum Corporation Inc. reported its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025, showing steady revenue and a slight earnings beat. The company’s earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.03, surpassing the forecast of $0.00. Revenues were slightly below expectations at $21.1 million, compared to the forecasted $21.24 million. The company maintains an impressive 8.73% dividend yield and received a "GOOD" financial health score from InvestingPro. Despite the revenue miss, the company’s stock showed resilience, with a slight increase in pre-market trading.

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Key Takeaways

• Evolution Petroleum reported EPS of $0.03, exceeding forecasts.
• Revenues remained flat year-over-year at $21.1 million.
• The company’s stock price increased by 0.75% in pre-market trading.
• Significant acquisitions and new wells were highlighted in the earnings call.
• Evolution Petroleum maintains a strong dividend performance.

Company Performance

Evolution Petroleum’s performance in Q4 2025 was marked by stable revenue and a slight earnings beat. The company maintained its revenue at $21.1 million, consistent with the previous year, with a gross profit margin of 42.52%. The net income stood at $3.4 million, translating to $0.10 per diluted share. The company also reported an adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 million, reflecting a 7% increase year-over-year. Operating with a moderate debt level and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.33x, this performance comes amid a volatile commodity price environment, with oil trading in the $60s range.

Financial Highlights

• Revenue: $21.1 million (flat year-over-year)
• Net income: $3.4 million ($0.10 per diluted share)
• Adjusted EBITDA: $8.6 million (up 7% year-over-year)
• Average production: 7,198 BOE per day
• Cash provided by operating activities: $10.5 million
• Capital expenditures: $4.7 million

Earnings vs. Forecast

Evolution Petroleum’s EPS of $0.03 exceeded the forecast of $0.00, representing a positive surprise for investors. However, the revenue of $21.1 million was slightly below the forecasted $21.24 million, resulting in a revenue surprise of -0.61%. Despite this, the earnings beat was a positive signal for the market.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings announcement, Evolution Petroleum’s stock price showed a modest increase in pre-market trading, rising by 0.75% to $5.541. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock’s RSI indicates overbought territory, though it generally trades with low price volatility. This movement suggests a cautiously optimistic investor sentiment, driven by the earnings beat and the company’s strategic acquisitions. The stock’s performance aligns with its 52-week range, which has seen highs of $6.144 and lows of $4.05.

Outlook & Guidance

Looking ahead, Evolution Petroleum plans to maintain its focus on free cash flow and dividend payments, having maintained consistent dividend payments for 13 consecutive years. The company has set a fiscal 2026 capital expenditure budget of $4-6 million and continues to pursue an opportunistic acquisition strategy. The potential for organic growth at Shabbaroo remains contingent on oil prices, which are currently volatile.

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Executive Commentary

"We are well-positioned to accelerate growth and advance the company’s strategy with multiple tailwinds in place," stated CEO Kelly Loyd. He also noted, "We’d rather not go full board drilling when prices are in the low $60s." CFO Ryan Stash emphasized the company’s risk management approach, saying, "Our ultimate goal [is] to protect downside while retaining prudent upside."

Risks and Challenges

• Volatile commodity prices could impact profitability.
• Dependence on oil prices for organic growth at Shabbaroo.
• Potential challenges in integrating recent acquisitions.
• Macroeconomic pressures affecting energy demand.
• Regulatory changes in the energy sector.

Q&A

During the earnings call, analysts inquired about production run rates and cost management strategies. The management discussed the rationale behind recent mineral acquisitions and highlighted flexibility in development plans, underscoring their focus on maintaining a balanced approach to growth and risk management.

Full transcript - Evolution Petroleum Corp Inc (EPM) Q4 2025:

Conference Operator: Good morning and welcome to the Evolution Petroleum Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are in listen-only mode. Please also note today’s event is being recorded. At this time, I would now like to turn the conference over to Brandi Hudson, Investor Relations Manager. Please go ahead.

Brandi Hudson, Investor Relations Manager, Evolution Petroleum: Thank you. Welcome to Evolution Petroleum’s Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings Call. I’m joined by Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Bunch, Chief Operating Officer; and Ryan Stash, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. We released our Fiscal Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 financial results after the market closed yesterday. Please refer to our earnings press release for additional information containing these results. You can access our earnings release in the Investors section of our website. Please note that any statements and information provided in today’s call speak only as of today’s date, September 17, 2025, and any time-sensitive information may not be accurate at a later date. Our discussion today will contain forward-looking statements of management’s beliefs and assumptions based on currently available information. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks, assumptions, and uncertainties as described in our SEC filings.

Actual results may differ materially from those expected. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. During today’s call, we may discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures, including adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income. Reconciliations of these measures to the closest comparable GAAP measures can be found in our earnings release. Kelly will begin today’s call with opening comments. Mark will provide an update on our properties and plans as they relate to our ongoing strategy of maximizing shareholder returns, and Ryan will provide a brief overview of our financial highlights. After our prepared remarks, the management team will be available to answer any questions. As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. If you wish to listen to a webcast replay of today’s call, it will be available on the Investors section of our website. With that, I will turn the call over to Kelly.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Thank you, Brandi, and good morning, everyone. We demonstrated another solid quarter of execution in Fiscal Q4. Evolution Petroleum reported a material improvement in net income of $3.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $8.6 million, underpinned by a balanced commodity mix and prudent cost controls. Average production was 7,198 BOE per day, and our revenue mix was 61% oil, with natural gas and NGLs providing a meaningful offset in a volatile oil backdrop. We also declared a $0.12 per share dividend for Fiscal Q1 2026, extending our record of dependable cash returns for shareholders. We have now consistently issued a dividend every quarter since 2013. We continued to upgrade the portfolio in ways that improve durability and capital efficiency. During the Fiscal Fourth Quarter, we closed our highly accretive $9 million TexMex acquisition, which included non-operated oil and natural gas assets across New Mexico, Texas, and Louisiana.

This acquisition adds roughly 440 net BOE per day of stable, low-decline production, with a roughly 60/40 mix of oil and natural gas, with relatively low cost behind pipe upside potential. Subsequent to quarter end, we closed the largest minerals-only acquisition in company history in the Scoop Stack, approximately 5,500 net royalty acres with roughly 420 net BOE per day at the effective date, with years of upside drilling that comes with no net cost to Evolution Petroleum. Minerals cash flows are very high margin as they come without lifting cost, which pairs beautifully with our existing position in the basin. These acquisitions are a great example of the kind of low-decline, high-return exposure that we seek: scalable, capital-light, and immediately cash-generative. They also represent a clear demonstration of our ability to effectively adapt to market environments and deploy capital in the most effective manner.

When oil prices are low, it presents compelling M&A opportunities rather than drilling opportunities and vice versa. In the market environment and what’s going on there, commodity prices remain choppy through the quarter. Our model, which is grounded in diversified commodity exposure and tight cost discipline, did what it is designed to do. It smoothed out cash flows and supported returns, which is further reflected by our improved profitability despite essentially flat revenue and production. For oil, we see the demand picture of kind of steady as she goes. Over the last 10 years, on average, demand has grown at a little over 1% per year, and we expect this trend to continue. OPEC Plus is continuing to add back supply.

This has recently put the global speculative trading community on defense, to the point where net positioning has reached some of the shortest net positioning observed in the past decade. On the other end of the spectrum, there’s very little geopolitical risk priced into the forward curves, although potential disruptive hotspots are popping up all over, from Russia to the Middle East, down to Southeast Asia and to South America. Additionally, we all know the best cure for low oil prices is low oil prices, but it doesn’t happen overnight. If prices stay in the $60s, we fully expect there to be a negative production response, and we’re already seeing many examples of CapEx budgets here in the U.S. being reduced. If the demand picture holds, it’s reasonable to assume that if more U.S.

barrels are needed, we will see higher near-term prices as flowing barrels are more sought after, as well as higher long-dated prices to incentivize increased CapEx from the North American E&P community. We’re certainly not calling for it, but we could see a sharp snapback, just like we did the last time WTI averaged in the $60s at $68 a barrel in 2021, and 2022’s average WTI price increased to roughly $95 a barrel. For natural gas, we see the setup for a very strong forward demand curve. Current and planned incremental LNG exports, as well as increased industrial demand tied to natural gas’s portion of incremental power generation, are the main drivers behind this. What is driving the expected increase in power usage? That’s in large part related to new data centers, AI implementation, and crypto coin mining.

In most years since the beginning of the Shale Era, producers have needed forward Henry Hub prices of greater than $3.50 to grow production sufficiently enough to meet these levels of forward demand expectations. However, we must always remember that weather is a huge player for natural gas prices and can cause sharp near-term swings. The weak weather scenario that requires a curtailment of supply has a far lesser financial impact on Evolution Petroleum than the positive financial benefit that we would receive from the opposite weather scenario, one where it’s so cold that there’s much more demand than supply. Overall, our portfolio of low-decline producing assets with additional upside potential from new drilling locations to behind pipe prospects is primed to both ride out any weakness and flourish when there’s strength. Regardless of the market environment, our capital allocation framework is unchanged.

Prioritize durable free cash flow, return cash through a reliable dividend, and pursue accretive low-decline opportunities, both organic and inorganic. These will improve our per share value over time. The $0.12 per share dividend we recently declared for Fiscal First Quarter 2026 reflects that discipline and our confidence in the portfolio and future cash flows. We also took a significant step to enhance flexibility with an amended and restatement of our senior secured reserve-based credit facility. The intent is straightforward: maintain conservative leverage and position our balance sheet with ample dry powder to capitalize on accretive opportunities for shareholders, be it organic or inorganic. With that, I’ll hand it over to Mark for more details on the assets.

Mark Bunch, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Thanks, Kelly, and good morning, everyone. I will focus my remarks on key operational highlights from the quarter and encourage listeners to review our earnings press release and filings for additional details across our asset base. Beginning with Scoop Stack, on our working interest position, activity moderated late in the quarter with several wells in progress and late quarter contributions beginning to come through now in the Fiscal First Quarter of 2026. On the minerals package that closed after quarter end, we anticipate a gradual ramp-up aligned to operator schedules, with the majority of initial royalty cash flow beginning in Fiscal 1Q 2026 and building from there. As Kelly mentioned earlier, mineral interests provide royalty cash flows without typical working interest expenses and complement our existing footprint. In Shabbaroo, we turned in line four gross wells on time and under budget, and early results are ahead of plan.

We are advancing permits for the next phase and will pace activity to commodity prices to support returns and cash flow consistency. In Delhi, operations experienced downtime from shut-ins related to facility safety upgrades. We also experienced some seasonal effects related to the high ambient temperatures limiting the amount of CO2 injection. The operator continues to inject only recycled CO2, which remains economically favorable for this field. In Jonah, operations were stable with reported sales volumes lower due to pipeline balancing. We expect makeup volumes to contribute in the first quarter of Fiscal 2026. Across the portfolio, our priorities are unchanged: safety, cost control, and capital efficiency. We will continue to deploy capital where it competes best on a risk-adjusted per share basis. Over to you, Ryan.

Ryan Stash, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Evolution Petroleum: Thanks, Mark, and good morning, everyone. As Brandi mentioned earlier, we released our earnings yesterday, which contains more information on our results. For today, I’d like to walk through our financial highlights. In Fiscal Q4 2025, we had total revenues of $21.1 million, essentially flat year over year. This reflected flat production at 7,198 BOE per day and overall pricing that was roughly unchanged on an aggregate basis given our diversified commodity mix. Realized natural gas prices increased 66% year over year, however, oil prices declined 20% year over year and NGL prices declined 12% year over year. Operationally, temporary downtime at Delhi and pipeline balancing at Jonah weighed on reported sales volumes, while our four new Shabbaroo wells turned in line and production from our TexMex acquisition helped offset the downtime.

Quarterly net income improved materially both sequentially and year over year to $3.4 million, or $0.10 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $8.6 million, up 7% year over year and 16% sequentially, driven by portfolio mix and cost discipline, as well as positive impacts from our hedge portfolio. On a per unit basis, LOE was $17.35 per barrel, and G&A, excluding stock-based compensation, was $2.99 per barrel. Cash provided by operating activities was $10.5 million for the quarter, and capital expenditures were $4.7 million. Our hedging program remains a core pillar of risk management. We maintain a balanced portfolio with our ultimate goal to protect downside while retaining prudent upside.

We evaluate markets regularly and will layer in hedges when required by our credit facility covenants or when economics support our objectives, which are supporting our dividend program, locking in returns for capital plans, and preserving balance sheet flexibility. We align hedge levels with expected volumes and the pace of development, consistent with our focus on maintaining free cash flow through commodity cycles. At June 30, 2025, we had cash and cash equivalents totaling $2.5 million, borrowings of $37.5 million, and total liquidity of approximately $30 million. As Kelly mentioned earlier, on June 30, we amended and restated our senior secured reserve-based credit facility, adding a second lender and establishing a $65 million borrowing base under a $200 million revolving credit facility that matures on June 30, 2028.

Subsequent to year-end, we funded our acquisition of mineral and royalty interests in the Scoop Stack with $15 million in borrowings under our revolver and cash on hand. We returned $4.1 million through common dividends in the quarter and $16.3 million in Fiscal 2025. On September 11, 2025, the board declared a $0.12 per share dividend for Fiscal 1Q 2026 payable September 30, 2025, to holders of record September 22, 2025, marking the company’s 48th consecutive quarterly dividend and 13th consecutive at the current level. Cumulatively, Evolution Petroleum has returned approximately $134.8 million, or $4.05 per share in common stock dividends, reinforcing our priority of steady capital returns and a dividend program built to remain dependable through cycles. Now I’ll hand it back over to Kelly for closing comments.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Thanks, Ryan. To close, our team executed very well in both Q4 and Fiscal 2025, especially when considering the volatile oil market we’ve been navigating this calendar year. We are very excited as we enter Fiscal 2026. We are well-positioned to accelerate growth and advance the company’s strategy with multiple tailwinds in place, including our recent acquisitions of TexMex and Scoop Stack Minerals, along with multiple organic opportunities across our asset base. At Shabbaroo and across the portfolio, we will pace development to market conditions and stay focused on our core objectives: creating durable free cash flow, a reliable dividend, and disciplined accretive opportunities that compound per share value over time. With that, I’ll turn it over to the operator to begin the Q&A session. Thank you very much.

Conference Operator: We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star then two. At this time, we’ll pause momentarily for callers to join the queue. Your first question comes from Poe Fratt with Alliance Global Partners. Please go ahead.

Poe Fratt, Analyst, Alliance Global Partners: Hey, good morning. I have a couple of questions, if I may. The first of which is, can you just give me an idea of sort of where your run rates are right now for, you know, like the Scoop Stack and also Barnett and, you know, even Shabbaroo, if you wouldn’t mind?

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Sure. You’re talking about on a production basis?

Poe Fratt, Analyst, Alliance Global Partners: Yes, BOE, whatever measure you want to use.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Okay. The Scoop Stack is, I mean, it’s in line with where we were on the quarter, honestly. Shabbaroo, where we’re going with that, you’ll see that the wells came on and they’re going to decline pretty, what Mark, on the first year average, sort of 50% over the course of the year. I apologize, but we don’t like to give out intra-quarter exact run rates. I’m being a little evasive on purpose here for you, but it’s in line with what we were in the quarter on the sort of natural declines we’re talking about.

Poe Fratt, Analyst, Alliance Global Partners: Okay. Maybe on Shabbaroo, when did you hit full production there? When did all four wells hit full production?

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Between the first two weeks of May.

Poe Fratt, Analyst, Alliance Global Partners: Okay, great. Can you talk about CapEx looking into Fiscal 2026?

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Yeah, right now, we’re, and I’ll let Mark and Kelly comment on Shabbaroo specifically, but our budget currently is around $4-6 million is what we’re thinking for Fiscal Year 2026, and that’s primarily Scoop Stack CapEx along with other maintenance CapEx that we typically see in our other areas. Right now we’re not currently budgeting any CapEx in that range for Shabbaroo, and that’s obviously dependent on our partner and just the outlook for oil prices in general.

Mark Bunch, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Yeah, I’d like to say we have, you know, we’re continuing to process to permit the wells and get them ready to drill, but we haven’t yet decided whether we’re going to pull the trigger on drilling them right now. It’s going to depend upon commodity prices at the time. You know, we have a very similar viewpoint with our partner out there. We’ll be making that decision sometime much closer when, you know, sometime in probably calendar year 2026.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Yeah, I’ll just call it. I mean, look, we consider these to be really valuable locations. Obviously, when you’re drilling new wells, they come on a flush production. Again, we’ll make that decision later on, but we’re sure everything we need to so we can dynamically change in response to prices. We’d rather not go full board drilling when prices are in the low $60s. We’d rather save that for when prices are better and take advantage of that.

Poe Fratt, Analyst, Alliance Global Partners: Understood. Thank you for that. Just one last one, if you wouldn’t mind, on the cost side, can you talk about where you might see LOE on Scoop Stack go? Also, with the Barnett, you had the audit benefit for the fiscal fourth quarter on that asset. Can you talk about a run rate for LOE for the Barnett looking at fiscal 2026?

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Okay, on the first question with regards to Scoop Stack LOE, the way we intend to do it, right? It’s one asset for us, and we’re going to look at it together. We’re still assessing the impact as cash flows come in, but we definitely, obviously, there’ll be a material improvement with the minerals acquisition. Mark, did you want to add to that?

Mark Bunch, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Petroleum: I’d say on Scoop Stack, it’s where it runs, right? We don’t expect on a BOE per basis for it to increase substantially. We should stay right where it is. It’s a good asset. It’s very, very profitable for us.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: When you combine it with the minerals, it will be even better. Yeah.

Mark Bunch, Chief Operating Officer, Evolution Petroleum: I’m talking about just the operated side. It’s been a star from a standpoint of cost per BOE.

Poe Fratt, Analyst, Alliance Global Partners: Yeah, I’m guessing you would see at least a 10% decline in your per BOE LOE on Scoop Stack in the fiscal first quarter or maybe even for the full year.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Yeah, obviously, that’ll get refined as we sort of integrate more of these cash flows as they come in. I think that’s a pretty good idea for a starting point.

Ryan Stash, Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, Evolution Petroleum: Yeah, on the Barnett, to answer your question, you know, obviously we’re looking at, if you look at our last quarter in our press release, it was about $18.50 a barrel all in for the Barnett. We do see some of those costs hopefully going down a little bit going forward. I mean, we do think there are going to be some benefits from the audit in terms of processes that were changed. There were gathering contracts that were renegotiated by the operator, Diversified, that is going to have some benefits. I would say run rate, you know, we’re seeing, you know, current levels be just slightly lower than that. We should hopefully do a little better than that March 31, 2023 number that we have there in the press release.

Poe Fratt, Analyst, Alliance Global Partners: Okay, great. Thank you so much.

Conference Operator: Again, if you have a question, please press star then one. Your next question comes from Chris Degner with Water Tower Research. Please go ahead.

Chris Degner, Analyst, Water Tower Research: Good morning and thank you. I just wanted to ask a bit more about the recent Scoop Stack acquisition that was mostly mineral acreage, and curious if that’s a shift in strategy or was more focused on that specific opportunity and how you think about acquisitions and with working interests versus minerals. Thank you.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Yeah, Chris, thank you. This is Kelly. I appreciate the question. This was done on a truly opportunistic basis. As you know, we screen many, many, many deals every year. What we look at chiefly is how accretive will it be to our cash flow per share, i.e. our ability to fund our dividend both near-term and long-term. This one, it fit perfectly. We bought it for what I think is a very reasonable price on PDP alone. I’d say more than 80% of the value we placed on just the PDP side of it. Of those 5,500, sort of, it’s actually 5,603 net royalty acres. There are a ton of upside drilling locations. As you know, with minerals, you don’t pay for those. It worked out to be something that, again, we’re really happy with the deal and where it’s looking. Plus, we understand the basin really well.

We understood how those locations are probably going to perform. I think it’s a really good deal. Going forward, it’ll be sort of the same strategy, Chris, where if it’s working interest, if it’s minerals, we’re going to go for whatever adds the most accretion to our cash flow per share going forward.

Chris Degner, Analyst, Water Tower Research: Excellent. That’s all I’ve got for today, but thank you.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Terrific. Thank you.

Chris Degner, Analyst, Water Tower Research: Yep.

Conference Operator: This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Kelly Loyd for any closing remarks.

Kelly Loyd, President and Chief Executive Officer, Evolution Petroleum: Thank you very much. We want to thank everyone for taking the time to be here and to listen to us. As you know, you can follow up with our IR department with Brandi Hudson if you want to arrange for any more questions. Like I said, just really proud of the team and all the great work they’ve done putting this portfolio together that is truly primed to do really, really well when we get some favorable tailwinds on pricing and ride out all the storms. Thank you very much for your time.

Conference Operator: The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.

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