Earnings call transcript: Heineken Q1 2025 sees modest revenue growth

Heineken NV, with a market capitalization of $21.7 billion, reported a modest 0.9% organic growth in net revenue for Q1 2025, reaching €6.5 billion. The company’s stock responded positively, rising 2.98% to 65.4, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic initiatives and premium product performance despite challenges in beer volume and currency impacts. According to InvestingPro, the company has maintained dividend payments for 34 consecutive years, demonstrating consistent shareholder returns.

Key Takeaways

• Organic net revenue growth of 0.9% in Q1 2025.
• Premium beer volumes grew by 1.8%.
• Stock price increased by 2.98% post-earnings.
• Continued focus on premium portfolio and operational efficiency.
• Challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions.

Company Performance

Heineken NV demonstrated resilience in Q1 2025, achieving a 0.9% organic growth in net revenue despite a 2.1% decline in beer volume. The company capitalized on its premium beer segment, which saw a 1.8% increase, and maintained strong performance in markets like Vietnam and India.

Financial Highlights

• Net Revenue: €6.5 billion, up 0.9% organically.
• Net revenue per hectoliter increased by 3.3%.
• Premium beer volume increased by 1.8%.
• Foreign currency translation negatively impacted revenue by €345 million.

Market Reaction

Following the earnings release, Heineken’s stock rose by 2.98% to 65.4. This movement reflects investor optimism about the company’s strategic focus on premium products and operational efficiencies, despite broader economic challenges. The stock has shown strong momentum with a 13.05% year-to-date return, and InvestingPro analysis suggests the stock is currently undervalued. With a dividend yield of 2.84% and a robust free cash flow yield of 18%, the company maintains strong fundamentals despite trading at a P/E of 38.07.

Outlook & Guidance

Heineken confirmed its 2025 outlook, projecting 4-8% organic growth in operating profit. The company remains cautious about the economic climate, employing a flexible approach to capital allocation and scenario planning to address potential uncertainties. InvestingPro analysis reveals additional insights about Heineken’s financial health and growth prospects, with multiple ProTips available for subscribers looking to make informed investment decisions. Get access to the comprehensive Pro Research Report, part of the coverage of 1,400+ top stocks, for detailed analysis and actionable intelligence.

Executive Commentary

Harald Van den Buch, CFO, highlighted the company’s adaptability to external economic conditions, stating, "We are dealing with a macroeconomic environment that is in flux with many current and emerging uncertainties." This underscores Heineken’s strategic focus on maintaining balanced performance and leveraging data for scenario planning.

Risks and Challenges

• Declining beer volumes could impact future revenue growth.
• Foreign currency fluctuations continue to pose financial risks.
• Macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions may affect market conditions.
• Inflationary pressures could influence consumer spending and cost structures.

Q&A

Analysts inquired about Heineken’s performance in the Vietnam market, challenges in South Africa, and retail negotiations in Europe. Discussions also covered the U.S. market’s weakness and economic conditions in Nigeria, highlighting the diverse challenges faced by the company across different regions.

Full transcript - Heineken Holding NV (HEIO) Q1 2025:

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: Hello, everyone, and thank you for joining the Heineken NV Q1 twenty twenty five Trading Update. My name is Marie, and I will be coordinating your call today. I will now hand over to your host, Tristan Van Strien, Director of Investor Relations to begin.

Please go ahead.

Tristan Van Strien, Director of Investor Relations, Heineken NV: Thank you, Marie. Thank you everyone from Amsterdam. Thank you for joining us for today’s live webcast of our twenty twenty five Q1 trading updates. Your host will be Harald Van den Buch, our Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, we will be happy to take your questions.

The presentation includes forward looking statements and expectations based on management’s current views and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties, and it is possible that the actual results may differ materially. For more information, please refer to the disclaimer on the first page of this presentation. I will now turn the call over to Harald.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Thank you, Tristan, and welcome everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Let me take a few minutes to give you a brief summary of the quarter and as Tristan said, open then for questions. First slide, we delivered net revenue growth in the first quarter of almost 1% despite operating in a challenging consumer and geopolitical environment. As anticipated and as we highlighted during our full year results primarily due to calendar related factors, we have seen a soft start to the year with beer volume decline 2%.

Yet we are pleased to see our evergreen strategy continue to shape our business. We maintained high quality growth with our premium portfolio in growth led by Heineken. We are also gaining or holding share in over half of our markets in the first quarter. Especially Vietnam, India, Ethiopia delivered good volume growth as a result of strategic actions taken in all of these markets to boost competitiveness. We also see continued strength of our brands in large markets such as Brazil, where we have gained volume and value share according to sellout data, and in China where we are outperforming the market with Heineken and recently also Amstel.

During the quarter, we have also seen the macroeconomic environment increasingly influx, which require us to stay agile and proactively adapt to changing circumstances. Considering the current condition, we confirm all elements of our 2025 outlook expectations, including operating profit Bayer to organically grow to 4% to 8%. Let us now look at some highlights. Net revenue BEIA came in at EUR6.5 billion, an increase of 0.9 organically, with net revenue BEIA per hectoliter increasing by 3.3%, driven by pricing to compensate for inflation and currency valuations. Beer volume was down 2.1% organically as said impacted by calendar effects like an early death and late Easter.

Our premium beer volume grew 1.8% and the Heineken brand was up almost 5%. The quarter one bridge provides a further breakdown of the organic growth of EUR 59,000,000 or 0.9% revenue Bayer. Total consolidated volume on an organic basis was down 2.4, slightly behind beer due to a decline of soft drinks in Africa. Underlying pricing was up 3.2% primarily from pricing in Africa. Our mix was up 0.9% because of the continued premiumization of our portfolio.

The translation of foreign currencies had a negative effect of EUR $345,000,000 or 5%, mainly due to the strong appreciation of the euro against most of our key currencies, in particular the Mexican peso, Brazilian real and the Ethiopian ber. Consolidation changes were minimal this quarter. In the first quarter, we saw a continuation of our portfolio strategy as mentioned. Premium volume growth close to 2% ahead of our total portfolio. This came from a wide range of premium brands and extensions across our regions, of course led by Heineken, but also from Kingfisher Ultra in India and stout brands like Legion in Nigeria and Murphy’s in The UK.

Our Heineken brand again registered a strong performance this quarter was up 5%. Let me unpack that Heineken growth for a second. The Heineken brand saw double digit growth in more than 25 markets with its strongest growth in our largest markets of Brazil and China, as well as notable growth in Nigeria. Heineken Zero Point Zero declined mainly due to the aforementioned Easter timing and some important phasing of orders to some key export markets. We are not concerned underlying.

We continue to see strong momentum with Heineken Silver growing over 30%, especially in Vietnam benefiting from a solid debt and again good performance in China. Then on to our results by region, and let me start with Africa Middle East. Net revenue Bayer grew 17.6% organically with price mix on a constant geographic basis up 20.3% driven by strong pricing across the region. Total consolidated volume was down 1.5% as mentioned due to a decline in carbonated soft drinks in Central Africa and low value wine in South Africa. Beer volume increased organically by 1.3% led by a return to growth in Ethiopia and Egypt.

Premium volume also grew led by Nigeria, where growth was over 30% led by Heineken, Legion and Desperados. I am pleased to see that both Nigeria and Ethiopia saw volume growth with signs of stabilizing macroeconomic conditions. Heineken Beverages, our total alcohol beverage business in East And South Africa delivered beer volume growth, though our total volumes in South Africa declined as our performance lagged the market currently characterized by high promotional intensity. Moving on to The Americas. Net revenue Bayer declined 2.1% organic.

Total consolidated beer volume was down 3.7%, again affected by Easter timings, whilst price mix on a constant geographic basis was up 0.7% led by the continued premiumization of our portfolio. The Mexican beer market declined slightly, mostly due to timings of Easter with our performance in line with the market according to our estimates. We saw solid volume growth from Amstel Ultra, Dozekis, Tecate Auregional and Indio. In Brazil, our volumes declined as we cycle last year’s inventory build ahead of the 04/01/2024 price increase and Easter phasing, roughly split half half in terms of impact. On sellout data, we gained significant volume and value share in a market in low single digit growth.

Solid growth momentum behind Heineken and Amso continues. In The United States, we saw weakness in the market and in our volumes. Nevertheless, our Heineken zero delivered another consecutive quarter of strong growth. Let me now turn to Asia Pacific. Net revenue BEIA increased 3.9% organically with consolidated beer volume up by 2.3% and price mix on a constant geographic basis up 3.6%.

The premium portfolio grew mid single digit led by Heineken in Vietnam, India and Laos, but also Kingfisher Ultra in India. In Vietnam, beer volume grew in the mid teens growing ahead of the market. We benefited from a moderate Tet season, a festive event as you know, skewed to our premium portfolio. Importantly, we have seen market growth returning to both off and on trade channels. In India, beer volume grew by a mid single digit continuing its growth momentum with premium volume growing in the 20s led by Heineken Silver and Kingfisher Ultra.

In China, Heineken grew in the 20s with continued momentum of Heineken Original and Heineken Silver significantly outperforming both the premium segment as well as the broader industry. Volume of Amstel doubled and the brand is now reaching meaningful scale. Cambodia is still in decline as we face challenging market conditions and continued increased competitiveness. And finally, a word on Europe. Net revenue Bayer declined with 4.9% with beer volume decreasing over 4.7% impacted by both calendar effects already mentioned, but also by challenging customer negotiations, as well as a muted consumer environment.

Price mix on a constant geographic basis increased 1.4%. In The UK, we continue to outperform the market with continued strong performance of Cruze Campo and expansion of Murphy’s Styles in both the on and the off premise. Western Europe saw the biggest impact of customer negotiations, which led to lower promotional activity and shorter term retail disruptions. Volume as a consequence declined mid single digit. Let me now move to the last slide, which is the outlook statement.

We are dealing with a macroeconomic environment that is in flux with many current and emerging uncertainties, such as inflationary pressures, weak consumer sentiment and imposition of tariffs in certain markets. It requires us to remain agile in our allocation of capital and resources. With over 95% of our volume produced locally, we have an advantageous brewery footprint. We are also doubling down on our productivity initiatives and focus on delivering solid operational and financial results. In terms of tariff impact, we distinguish between the direct impact, mostly related to an increased cost base for our products and an indirect impact related to the effects on global trade, currencies, disruption of country economies, and derived impact on household income.

All this of course, may affect beer market growth. We have a good assessment of the direct impact and have put in place mitigating actions. We plan the year taking different scenarios into account, and therefore based on our current assessment of risks and our ability to adapt, this impact, this direct impact falls within our expected range. Consequently, we confirm our full year outlook of 4% to 8% organic growth in operating profit Bayer with all the key elements of our previous guidance unchanged. The indirect impact, as you will understand is multi dimensional and complex to assess at present.

For instance, we have seen the euro strengthen recently compared to some of our key currencies, leading to a significant translation impact on our 2025 earnings using the spot rates of today. Of course, this has seen a lot of ups and downs in recent weeks. To close, quarter one results were within the range of expectations. We confirm our outlook guidance on key metrics yet are cautious about the wider economic climate. With that, I’d like to open the line for Q and A.

Thank you for listening.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: Our first question comes from the line of Edward Mundy Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Edward Mundy, Analyst: Afternoon, Harold. Afternoon, Tristan. So two questions please. The first is on Vietnam where you saw some pretty decent momentum in the first quarter. Could you perhaps provide a bit more of a flavor as to what’s driving those share gains?

What are the things you’re doing to boost competitiveness? And then how do you think about sustainability of these trends assuming the macro remains unchanged into Q2 and beyond? And is there any inventory considerations to think about after the very strong first quarter? So that’s the first question on Vietnam. And then the second one is just picking up on your closing comments around the potential indirect impact from this period of flux.

Could you perhaps provide a few examples as how Heineken as a management team, you’re changing your approach to risk management to allow you to better manage through potential volatility?

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Ed, super good questions. Thank you. I’ll take them in turns. So first, as we said in our full year outlook, Vietnam was an important indicator for us. And in our full year results, we already said that we were expecting a moderate debt and we’re pleased to see from the sell in data that this was still a premium occasion.

As you know, the market in recent years has seen a trend towards mainstream becoming more acceptable. What you really see in quarter one is that premium is still very much top of mind of the consumer. And this is relevant. You have also noticed the growth of Heineken and this is taking in some parts, let’s call it the softness in Tiger is being absorbed by an accelerated growth in Heineken. And we talked about the Coolpag previously as well.

We also see that on trade is starting to stabilize. So both in terms of the competitiveness, the portfolio design that we put in place to maintain clear leadership in premium, as well as through our very portfolio starts building positions in mainstream, which is very much regionally driven is starting to pay effect. And LaRue Smooth is another very good example of that. Now we want to be a bit cautious because these things are very complex and take time. But we are definitely encouraged by two factors in quarter one results, actually three, if I may say.

Starting with the market, the market is stabilizing and both channels are in growth. Second, premium is still alive and kicking as seen from the Tet season. And third, we’re making progress in building out the full position of our portfolio. Although again, I should say, this will take time. So I don’t want to, let’s call it exaggerate the impact that we’ve seen in quarter one.

But the early signs are healthy from a portfolio point of view. But again, I don’t want to get carried away too soon, too quick. The last point is therefore linked to your We really see that Vietnam this year, as you say, all intents and purposes are is on the right trajectory, barring of course, the impact of the indirect impacts on the macroeconomic environment, which at this moment in time, I do not know and do not want to comment on. What is important to us is that our strategy works and we will continue to drive that strategy. And to your last point, there is no stock overhang in the post tax season.

So we’ve managed the tax very responsibly and learned our lesson from two years ago. To your second question about the indirect impact and the volatility that we currently see in the world, it really is that we are as a management team, more agile in terms of the preparedness of risk identification, as well as risk responses. So we have really in the past year and a half started to shift from our own business risk factors to some macroeconomic risk factors that we then try to predict, anticipate, and find corresponding scenarios on. And Africa is the easiest example, because you’ve seen it in action. We do this now more and more across the component parts of the world.

So our risk management change has started to shift from the micro of our operations to the macro about the derived impact of what we see happening in this world. This leads to much more caution in investments, but also agility in investment decisions. So we’re able to move money around and really start to look a little bit further ahead about whether this is a right or not a right place to invest. That anticipation is probably the biggest change together with the scenario planning that we have and can activate probably in a three to six months timeframe. Now, this all sounds good, but with the risk factors that we see in today’s world, you will understand that the impact that we can have only go so far, but I’m sure that the people on the call realize that.

Sanjit Aujla, Analyst, UBS: Thank you.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: We have a question from Sanjit Aujla of UBS. Please go ahead.

Sanjit Aujla, Analyst, UBS: Good afternoon, Harold and Tristan. A couple from me, please. Can you just talk a little bit more about the retailer negotiations in Europe, how that has progressed through the quarter? And are there any signs of resolution there? Or is this this something that continues into Q2?

And my follow-up question is really on Mexico. It feels like the underlying category remains healthy despite what we’ve observed to be a lot of caution from other consumer companies in recent weeks. So can you just talk a little bit to what’s driving the resilience of the beer category there and if anything has changed in your outlook?

: Yes.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: I’m just writing your question, Sanjit, which is why I’m taking a second. Yes, thank you. So first, retail in Europe. I do believe that also in the conference call that we had, when was it a few weeks ago, we called that out. So the situation in Europe is pretty tough actually.

We have spoken before about the consumer sentiment being relatively stuff. We also have been very aware that a number of the, let’s call it the trade negotiations, buying alliances or otherwise have been quite stern. We also believe that this is part of business. And therefore, we don’t want to make too big a point of this. It’s an annual event.

It is always occurring. The reason that we’re calling it out is that we believe that as from 2024 and 2025, we still see in Europe some inflationary pressures. And as a result of that, we need to defend our position towards the business, and also to make sure that on trade off trade are being kept in proper balance. This is the total consumer base that we are spending time and trying to invest behind. We also spoke previously that pricing is necessary in order to bring investment back into the category.

And as you will see last year, as well as this year, we’re investing in the beer category to bring consumers back to the franchise. And that requires collaboration with the retailers. In their view, some of them were asking price deflation. And we are in tough negotiations, because we don’t believe that that is fully warranted, simply because we want to invest in the category. We’re close to resolving this with one or two outstanding discussions still ongoing.

So there will be some spillover in quarter two. But as we said, please don’t read too much into this. It’s just tougher than usual what we’ve seen in the past five years. That’s why we’re calling it out. But we don’t want to make this an apology performance.

So I think it’s just part of a quite stretched business situation that we’re finding ourselves in, as does the retail in Europe. Maybe Mexico category health. It’s a bit difficult to read what the underlying dynamics is on the beer category, because as you know, Easter is quite a big event in Mexico. And what we did record is that the beer category in aggregate in quarter one was in slight decline. Now how much of that is Easter phasing?

How much of that is consumer still enjoying their beer? I probably are able to give you a better view of that when we are closing quarter two. But for now, I think as we see it, we don’t see a steep drop off in terms of consumption. We do note that the Mexican bank is lowering GDP and we know that GDP growth correlates to beer growth. So we’re a bit more cautious on the outlook, but we are not concerned about the outlook is probably where I would peg it, Sanjit.

Sanjit Aujla, Analyst, UBS: Very good. Thank you.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: We have a question from Oliver Nicolas of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Oliver Nicolas, Analyst, Goldman Sachs: Hi, good afternoon, Howard and Tristan. Just two questions on my side. Just following up a bit on Europe and specifically on France. You mentioned short term retail disruption and shipment phasing around customer negotiation. Will this continue into Q2?

And are you seeing any improvements already towards the end of the quarter or even Q1 trading? That’s on the first question. And then secondly on The U. S, the market has been weak, but obviously Heineken has been also losing share there. How do you think you can address this going forward?

Is it a distribution issue, a marketing issue or brand portfolio issue? How do you assess the issue that Heineken is facing in The U. S. Even though it’s

Sanjit Aujla, Analyst, UBS: a small market for you?

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Thank you, Oliver, and good to speak to you. First, let me indeed zoom in on France. And indeed, we mentioned in my script that it was Western Europe, but we all know on the call that France is particularly renowned for tough customer negotiations. So you’re right to single that one out. I believe that this is indeed short term retail disruption.

And as I just mentioned to Sanjit, there will be some spillover probably into quarter two. Although, again, repeat, I don’t want to make too big a deal out of this, because it’s part of what we experience every year in terms of negotiation, a bit tougher this time, But let’s not dwell on that for too long. Promo slots, are they let’s call it permanent losses? We don’t believe so. This is really part of doing the negotiations and part of the negotiations and shaking hands are also about then to conclude on how to bring the category back to growth.

Because ultimately, it’s in our joint interest to grow the category and to service consumers at the same time. So again, I think it is a key point in quarter one. Some spillover may happen. I think it’s also important to emphasize, which I didn’t do with Sanjit, that our pricing was holding in Europe, which is what we believe in order to be able to invest in the category because in the end, growth matters. And we are looking still at relative competitiveness of our portfolio compared to peer group companies.

So I just wanted to give you that additional context as well. Any concerns that we’re out pricing ourselves are not justified. Then maybe going into The U. S. Where I don’t fully agree with your conclusion over here.

The market has been weak. Yes, I agree. And the market has been specifically weak also in quarter one. You will have seen many companies commenting about that. But I don’t agree with your second part of the statement that Heineken has been underperforming for some time, because although we see this as a strategic market where we still see more potential than what we currently realize, we have been holding share ish, right?

And I think the mix that we want to play is really Heineken, Dorsakis first led by Heineken zero point zero. And there are some parts like Takeda that we are deliberately deprioritizing. So I wouldn’t want to call our relative performance in The U. S. Necessarily a problem in its own right.

We are still have the ambition to do better in The U. S. That’s also true.

: Thank you very much.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Thanks, Oliver.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: We have a question from Richard Wissigan of Kepler. Please go ahead.

Richard Wissigan, Analyst, Kepler: Yes. Thanks, Harald and Tristan. Two questions, please. So first of all, the 5% drop in Q1 volumes in Europe triggers the question on how profitability will develop in the region this year. I know there’s obviously some phasing issues in Q1, but Harald, maybe you can discuss the main drivers that gives you confidence that you can grow EBIT in Europe this year.

And then the second question is on, obviously, the market environment remains very uncertain. So what is the flexibility in terms of costs in case Heineken needs to protect profitability more than you foresee currently?

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Yes. Again, Richard, really good questions and thanks for asking them. So indeed quarter one was a bit tough, but as you rightly call out, we should not forget leap year last year and Easter phasing is also playing a part in Europe. So I do want to make sure that the 5% does not stick in your mind as an underlying performance. The profitability in the region, we’re not disclosing profits for quarter one, but I think the region is doing a really good job in making sure that they invest where it matters.

The call out in The UK is a good example, but also is trimming down investment and cost where the market reality tools for that. So I do believe that the European region is actually quite agile in its management of its cost base in as far as it’s possible. And that gives me also confidence that the region is on the right trajectory to meet their business objectives this year. I’m not in the habit of giving specific regional guidance and I will not start today, but it is indeed the case that we ambition for Europe to grow as well as grow profitably and that is what they’re still on track to deliver. And quarter two is an important proof point of that.

So maybe good to wait a couple of months and see the evidence of that coming through. What is relevant is the market environment. The discussion that we have with our European team is that there are definitely pockets of growth that we can have in Europe. We still have an opportunity in zero point zero. We still have an opportunity in our premium part of the portfolio.

We still have opportunity in fantastic local brands like Gallia in France or in Tessels in The Netherlands. And that’s what we’re investing behind. And we also see that the consumer is willing to up trade and experiment. This is how we ambition to grow in Europe. So in absolute volume growth will relatively be low, but the opportunity in pockets of success, whether it’s geography, or whether it’s premium and innovation will still be there.

And that’s how we are really working to unlock that potential, but in a profitable way. To your second question is what levers do we have to pull? I spoke previously also about a significant cost transformation program in Europe, partly about brewery optimization, transport planning across operating companies, for instance, with the addition of AI. And more and more, we have a full visibility of the pipeline that also in Europe, there is more still, let’s call it cost performance management to be done. And that gives us ammunition for growth, but also ammunition for profit expansion.

Thank you, Richard.

Sanjit Aujla, Analyst, UBS: Thanks, Harald. Thank you.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: We have a question from Andrea Pistacci of Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Andrea Pistacci, Analyst, Bank of America: Yes. Hi, Harald and Tristan. Two questions please on two different markets. First on South Africa, which has been quite challenging for you in beer and now even I think the non beer part of the business that they still had a softer quarter. You’ve said clearly that you’ve had a difficult integration, but what do you think really hasn’t worked here?

And how do you change this? And how long do you think turnaround in South Africa may take? And the second question actually on India, which on the contrary is doing very, very well. Strong pricemix in India, I think you probably had 7%, eight %, nine % pricemix there. To what extent was this price increases versus mix as you’re really starting to do a lot more on the portfolio premiumization there?

And how sustainable is this sort of growth in India, this mix you’re getting in India? Thank you.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Yes, Andrea, excellent questions, by the way. So let me, yeah, let me just be frank about our performance in South Africa. But I should start with saying, look, we are still fully standing behind the strategic commitment that we’ve made to build a Heineken beverages champion in Southern Africa. What is also quite obvious is that the time it takes to unlock that full potential is longer than what we anticipated. And what hasn’t worked is really a couple of aspects.

The first one is, of course, the time it took to get the approvals and the integration done, allowed ABI to really step up their competitive game. I mentioned that many times before on the calls. So I’m not disclosing anything new, but they are really a phenomenal competitor in South Africa, I have to admit. So that’s a big battle, but we’re ready to take it. The second one is the portfolio design and our understanding of the portfolio is something that we’re learning.

And we have some really good things that we see. Bernini is doing very well. We have got great new variants. We have a successful implementation of the Heineken RGB bubble. But there are also some things that we are adjusting and learning as we go.

Particularly the wine business is very different thing for us to get to learn. And the price competition in that category has proven to be quite remarkable. And that is something that we’re adjusting to. So how long will it take? Frankly, I think we need to take this step by step.

Let me put that into context. I still believe that this year will be better than last year. And our teams are confirming that. Last year was better than the year before. So every year is a step forward, it’s not a step back, but it will take longer to fully materialize to its fullest promise.

And frankly, we are going to take the time and the investment necessary, because simply the attractiveness of the market and the opportunity there is too big not to go after. So maybe that puts it into the relative context. So please be patient with us, but we are making progress. On India, I think you’re right, it has been a very good performance and we’re happy with our business there. It’s important to differentiate the price mix elements of that.

So pricing, as you know, in India is very often regulated by state and requires long negotiations and explanations to get that right. So the pricing component that we got in India was low single digit. And it was still a few percentage, but low single digit. The mix component was much larger and that really worked in our favor. What you will also have heard me talked about is that we are becoming more assertive as a business to really drive the right portfolio with the right consumer base, but also the right authorities engagement strategy to create healthy business platforms, but that is a state by state affair.

And that is something that we’re working on. And I am increasingly confident that that will last going forward. So I’m happy with our India performance. Thanks, Andre.

: Thank you.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: We have a question from Chris Pitcher of Redburn Atlantic. Please go ahead.

: Thank you, Harald. Thanks, Tristan. Can I follow-up on South Africa please? Harald, you mentioned that you expect this year to be better than last year and last year was better than the year before. If I look at the revenue development in Q1, I mean is the exit of the five liter wine enough to get your price mix up into the high single digits so revenues are flat?

When you talk about better this year, are you talking more about perhaps profitability that you can see a clear path in the next twelve to eighteen months for getting South Africa to breakeven? And maybe as a follow on from that, I mean, terms of running a multi beverage business, I mean it’s a unique market in that context of scale. I mean does it put you off following this model elsewhere? I mean you mentioned wine being more complicated and it’s a very different category to be in altogether. I mean as a test case, this put you off this model elsewhere?

Thanks. FERNANDEZ:]

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Let me reserve the last question for last. So Chris, indeed we are trying to balance our portfolio in wine towards growth and consumer occasions versus profitability. And it takes time to get that right apparently. And it is more the three liter than the five liter just as a point of detail. But I think this is not as easy as it seems.

We are noticing that the price sensitivity of the consumer, particularly when low price competition is coming in, is a science that we don’t fully master at this moment in time. But really, would divert a question or further follow-up to the IR team because I’m going there in two or three weeks. After that, I’ll give you a lot more flavor, But I don’t think that is appropriate to do that on this call. Then to your broader question is what do you define as better? It’s a good question.

And for us better means better over time. It means we have to master a broader portfolio. We have to start getting quality growth in that portfolio. And we have to do that in a profitable and sustainable way. And that includes at some point in time in the segments that we choose to play to grow market share.

That’s what I believe better over time. Now, I think out of these hierarchy of priorities, when I call this year will be better than last, I am more confident on growth and profit than I am on market share. And that will take some time to build. And yes, forgive me for being so direct on this call, but I also think that you’re rightly asking the question and I want to give the honest answer to that, so you can manage expectations going forward. Now does it put us off?

Hell no. We are a business of one hundred and sixty years. And I think we really, really are focused on consumer needs. And we have been an entrepreneurial company for a very long time. Does that mean that you should deduct from this that we very quickly go into non beer categories elsewhere?

Probably also not. So it is probably the right balance, but we are led by opportunities, consumers and we have a long term horizon as you know. So let’s learn. We’re also now introducing the Heineken beverage portfolio in Nigeria and some other places in Africa, and we see some emerging success on a small scale. So give us also time to learn and to expand.

But ultimately, we’re here to service consumers, beer foremost, but not exclusively.

: Thank you, Harald. Very clear.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Thank you.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: We have a question from Carlos Laboy of HSBC. Please go ahead.

Tristan Van Strien, Director of Investor Relations, Heineken NV: Yes. Thank you, Harold and Tristan. Two questions, one Brazil, one Mexico. On Brazil, can you give us more detail on the share value trends of Amstel and Heineken in Brazil? And as you look at 2025, can you comment on mix benefits that you might expect from your refillable efforts and revenue management in Brazil as well?

And then on Mexico, just if you could give us an update on your route to market evolution, particularly in Southern Mexico, where I know you’re experimenting with the Coke bottlers there. If there’s any discernible benefits coming from that yet?

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Yes. Hey, Carlos, good to hear you on the call. Been a long time since we saw each other and spoke. So starting with Brazil, I’m pleased that the audience is not picking up on our volume growth, because the three messages I want to give on Brazil is that the market is in growth. Our volume is a consequence of sell in, out versus shipments Easter and pricing related.

But underneath, to your point, is we’re actually continuing to see a good share trajectory, predominantly led by Heineken and Amstel. So our portfolio strategy, including mix, as you rightly point out, continues to work. I know there is also a slumbering question about price competitiveness in the market and do we see healthy levels of, let’s call it competitiveness, but not price reductions being put in the market. I think the reality is yes. We see importantly, the premium part of the market is still what drives the market growth.

I continue to reiterate this because our portfolio strategy is conducive to that. And frankly, we are driving together with one other debt conversion into premium growth. So we believe that the market growth is healthy. And within that, our market share position, I’m not sure that we explained that, but it was a very solid market share progress that we’ve seen is actually spearheading that first led by Heineken and then led by AMSO. And as a consequence of that, the economy part of the portfolio is continuing to bleed a little bit in our sense, but we don’t want to divert from our portfolio strategy as we had.

And the negative impact of that economy loss is also starting to get less. So that’s a bit the portfolio composition in Brazil. And to your point, our mix benefits from own route to market and the growth of RGB, that is continuing and that adds about in terms of RGB component, about 500 basis points on an annual basis is where we see the growth in RGB in our portfolio as a consequence of that. And that helps, of course, the gross margin mix benefit from it. To your point in Mexico, yes, honestly Carlos, we can spend a lot of time on it, but it’s not yet large enough to warrant that time.

We are really trying to develop that growth part of the South Of Mexico, but it might be good to be a bit more patient and I’ll give you a bit more color at half year. At the moment, it’s not relevant enough for this quarter.

Tristan Van Strien, Director of Investor Relations, Heineken NV: Thank you.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Thank you, Carlos.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: Our next question is from Simon Hales of Citi. Please go ahead.

Simon Hales, Analyst, Citi: Thank you. Good afternoon all.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Harold, I wanted to just ask you a little

Simon Hales, Analyst, Citi: bit about Nigeria to start with, particularly the strong revenue per hectoliter performed there in the quarter. I You called out in your prepared remarks, obviously, the premiumization you’re seeing. I don’t know if you can give us a split as to what was premiumization, what was price that drove that strong performance, how we should think about that as we move forward into Q2 and beyond. And then secondly, when it comes to the 4% to 8% organic EBIT guidance for the full year, is there any should we think about any particular phasing of that between H1 and H2? I asked the question in part because I imagine the direct impact you’ll see from the tariff situation, it’s done probably a little bit more H2 weighted given I assume you’ve shipped some products into bonded warehouses in

S?

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Yes. I have to laugh because, yes, we did ship some extra volume to be ready for that. But also, yes, let’s not get too carried away. It was a nice action for us to take, but it will not be a meaningful contribution to the mitigation unfortunately. Beer expires as you know.

So first on Nigeria, I think the team in Nigeria is really getting quite accustomed to managing the volatility in Nigeria. And we explained before as well, is that the let’s call it the collaboration with the banks, the governments in order to exchange views about the stability of the economy, how to avoid that we are in a way fueling inflation, what is the outlook on currency availability, I do believe that there is a strong collaboration that our Nigeria team has to operate in that environment. In the end, however, customer decides pricing. And it does mean that the revenue per hectoliter increases that we have are very much informed by input cost inflation and currency devaluations. And to that extent, we do believe that the pricing that you currently see will tail off in the second half of the year, because the currency after large devaluation have become a bit more stable.

And as you know, we’ve actually taken 14 price increases last year in order to lead consumers up as far as the outlets let us. So I do think that there’s some phasing component in terms of pricing half one, half two. But therefore, is all the more relevant is the point that you’re making Simon about the mix management, because we are very pleased that in an environment where there is now a bit more macroeconomic stability, but not yet macroeconomic recovery, just to call that out, it’s stable, but not recovering. We do see that consumers are willing to spend and also up trade And we are therefore very careful with our portfolio design region by region to make sure that we don’t disrupt the mix management, but also the volume recovery that we see in Nigeria. And I commented in quarter four last year that our volumes in quarter four Nigeria were a bit more positive than we expected.

We also see this year in the first quarter relatively solid growth in Nigeria, but we don’t want to call too soon that this is now back on track. So it’s almost like a careful dance that we’re doing in Nigeria. So please don’t pencil in yet that this is now behind us. It’s a bit too early to say. And then on your question on 4% to 8% guidance and the breakdown of half one, half ’2, what we’re really aiming for also to be a bit more, let’s call

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: it

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: responsive to look at unforeseen circumstances is to have a little bit of flexibility around delivering half one in line with our full year outlook guidance as well as half two. Now I cannot be too precise about this because, hey, the world is every day a little bit different today, but you shouldn’t find a huge queue half one, half ’2. That’s what we’re aiming for.

Simon Hales, Analyst, Citi: Very clear. Thanks very much.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Thanks, Simon.

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: Our last question comes from the line of Trevor Stirling of Bernstein. Please go ahead.

Tristan Van Strien, Director of Investor Relations, Heineken NV0: Hi, Harold. I guess two questions from me. One big picture and one more detailed. Big picture one, Harold, as you reflect where we are today compared to where we were three months ago. And what has surprised you positively in terms of either the quarterly performance or the outlook?

And what has surprised you negatively? And then the detailed question is, if I look at the beer performance you broke down by subsector, total beer was down 2%, mainstream flattish, premium up 1.8%, Heineken up 4.6%. Is it right then to say that the weakness must have been primarily on the economy beer? And maybe just give a little bit of color about which countries have that significant weakness on the economy beer?

Simon Hales, Analyst, Citi: Sure.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Fabri, if you allow me, I’ll end on the high. So I’ll take your question in reverse order. The weakness in the economy brand is I try to indicate that it was predominantly Brazil. And as I said, the drop off is a little bit less than what we called out last year because one of our lower margin competitors have indeed increased prices. And we said we would be only selective in where we would compete, because there’s no point in us to change our portfolio strategy.

It doesn’t mean that the economy part of the portfolio was still not in decline. And that is the most important reason. We also see a bit in Europe surprisingly enough, because we talked previously also that the consumer in Europe is really still conducive to premium and they’re still conducive to experiment and try new brands and portfolio. You also see that in own label. Own label in Europe is not growing.

And that’s where we see that portfolio mix coming in. So predominantly Brazil, a little bit of Europe to answer that question. And then if I reflect on three months ago, and maybe also a little bit further out, let me start with the negatives. I still think that the negative surprise to us was clearly The U. S.

And what we currently see is the weakness of The U. S. Consumer, particularly the Latin America consumer for a variety of reasons actually is a bit concerning, but we do see the market really taking an impact there. And I believe one of our peer group companies has also called that out. The second one is we had hoped to get some more positive momentum in Europe, both in terms of the on trade as well as in terms of the pricing negotiation to conclude that earlier.

And that is something that we did not fully anticipate in our plans. On the positives, we talked about it, Vietnam, India, some African markets doing a little bit better than what we had hoped for and long may it continue. But let me close off with something that is perhaps not related to business performance, but is related to culture and practices. We spoke in the full year results that we were preparing for scenarios given the uncertainty of the world. And I think we have over the past year become much better to read external data points to build that in our scenarios to go through exercises to if this happens, what do we do?

So that the business is now actually pretty calm and clear in how to navigate. Now all of that is relative. Of course, let me just close by saying, we know all what we act today and that’s also how we wrote our outlook statement. We all can read the newspapers that that predictability is not fully there at this moment in time, but I’m actually pretty proud of how the business is navigating and how we’re able to shuffle money around to take opportunities where they arise and adjust where they don’t arise. And that I think is building some resilience in our business.

Thank you for that question, Trevor.

Tristan Van Strien, Director of Investor Relations, Heineken NV0: Super. Thank you very much, Harald.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: You. This concludes today’s Q and A

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: session. Indeed.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: I wanted to thank the audience. Indeed.

Tristan Van Strien, Director of Investor Relations, Heineken NV: Thank you, Marie.

Harald Van den Buch, Chief Financial Officer, Heineken NV: Thank you. I hope we’re now able to do

Marie, Call Coordinator, Heineken NV: all for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.