AI could boost global trade by nearly 40% by 2040, WTO report finds

Investing.com -- Artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of cross-border flows of goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, according to the World Trade Report 2025 released Wednesday by the World Trade Organization (WTO).

The report projects that global trade could rise by 34-37% across different scenarios based on varying degrees of policy and technological catch-up between low-, middle-, and high-income economies.

Global GDP could see a 12-13% increase across these scenarios.

"AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven," said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in her foreword to the report.

The WTO report estimates that global trade in AI-enabling goods, such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs, totaled $2.3 trillion in 2023.

In a scenario where low- and middle-income economies narrow their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies by 50% and adopt AI more widely, these economies are projected to see incomes rising by 15% and 14% respectively.

The report highlights the need for policies to bridge the digital divide, invest in workforce skills, and maintain an open trading environment for AI to contribute to inclusive growth.

It also notes that quantitative restrictions applied to AI-related goods have increased significantly, from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, primarily driven by high- and upper middle-income economies.

Access to AI-enabling goods remains uneven, with bound tariffs reaching up to 45% in some low-income economies.

The WTO report emphasizes the organization’s role in helping deliver inclusive access to AI and its benefits. It provides a forum for members to discuss AI-related trade measures, with 80 specific trade concerns raised focusing on AI.

The report suggests that additional commitments from members, such as broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services, could make AI more inclusive and affordable.

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