Moody’s upgrades Argentina’s ratings to Caa1, outlook stable

Published 17/07/2025, 21:46
Moody’s upgrades Argentina’s ratings to Caa1, outlook stable

Investing.com -- Moody’s Ratings has upgraded Argentina’s long-term foreign and local currency issuer ratings to Caa1 from Caa3 and changed the outlook to stable from positive.

The upgrade reflects the extensive liberalization of exchange controls and a new International Monetary Fund program that support hard currency liquidity and reduce external finance pressures, lowering the likelihood of a credit event.

Argentina’s ongoing transition toward a more open capital account and continued release of exchange controls marks an initial step toward external payments sustainability. The country’s disinflation process, driven by shifts in fiscal and macroeconomic policy, along with economic reforms aimed at removing market distortions, will support the IMF program’s goal of medium-term balance of payments sustainability.

However, weak external buffers and structural impediments to investment continue to challenge external stability, keeping the sovereign’s credit profile at the Caa1 rating level.

The stable outlook balances upside and downside risks as policy challenges persist. The economic recovery and public support for government adjustment policies ahead of October’s legislative midterm elections could give the government a stronger mandate to accelerate economic reforms. Downside risks include the possibility that removing remaining capital and exchange controls could reignite macroeconomic imbalances.

Argentina’s local currency country ceiling was raised to B1 from B3, while its foreign currency ceiling was raised to B2 from Caa1.

In April, authorities replaced the crawling peg system with a new exchange rate regime where the Argentine peso floats within a band. Most restrictions on accessing foreign exchange in the official market were removed, though some remain.

The economy expanded 5.9% in the first quarter of 2025 after six quarters of year-on-year contraction. Moody’s forecasts real GDP growth of 4% in 2025, slowing to 3.5% in 2026.

The new IMF Extended Fund Facility provides $20 billion over four years, with $12 billion already disbursed in April. Another $3 billion is subject to reviews through the end of 2025. Additional non-IMF multilateral disbursements will reach $6.1 billion, further increasing reserve buffers.

Despite improvements, Argentina’s macroeconomic adjustment program has not yet yielded independent accumulation of reserves apart from IMF and multilateral inflows, indicating ongoing vulnerability.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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