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Investing.com -- Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook for Slovenia’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) from stable to positive, confirming the IDR at ’A’ on April 4, 2025. The positive outlook reflects key rating drivers including persistent fiscal outperformance, a decline in public debt, and substantial progress on key reforms.
Slovenia has consistently outperformed in fiscal matters, achieving a primary fiscal surplus of 0.4% of GDP in 2024 and an overall deficit of 0.9%, well below Fitch’s previous overall deficit forecast and the government’s target. This has been due to stronger revenue performance and weaker-than-planned execution of flood-related capital expenditure. Fitch projects the deficit at 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, factoring in higher defense spending and lower than expected flood-related capital expenditure.
The country’s general government debt/GDP ratio fell to 67.0% in 2024, declining for the fourth year and nearing the pre-pandemic level. Fitch forecasts that the debt will fall to 63.5% by the end of 2026, driven by a strong fiscal position and stable growth.
Slovenia has made significant progress in implementing reforms to address fiscal challenges related to aging. The Long-Term Care Act has created an integrated system and introduces higher social security contributions from mid-2025. Pension reform set for 2026 aims to stabilize the pension bill at around the 2024 level in the medium term and limit its long-term increase.
Slovenia has shown resilience to consecutive external shocks, despite being a small and open economy. As of 4Q24, real GDP was 10.5% above pre-pandemic levels. The country has increased its global export market share by 27% since 2021 and 38% since pre-pandemic. Slovenia’s current account surplus was 4.5% of GDP in 2024, unchanged from 2023, outperforming Fitch’s forecasts.
Slovenia’s ’A’ IDRs are supported by a high income level, high governance and human development indicators and a credible policy framework anchored by EU and eurozone membership. These strengths are balanced against a high, albeit declining, public debt burden relative to ’A’ rated peers and the economy’s small size.
Real GDP growth in 2024 was 1.6%, accelerating in the second half of the year. Fitch projects growth at 2.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, reflecting relatively low direct exposure to US tariffs, supported by rising real disposable income, a strong labor market, gradual external demand recovery, and solid investment.
Slovenia has maintained a relatively stable political environment over several election cycles, facilitating medium-term fiscal and economic planning and structural reforms. Continued political stability will assist further reducing government debt and addressing long-term ageing costs.
The Slovenian banking sector remains stable, with capitalization of 19.7% at end-2024. Profitability further improved, with a return on equity of 18.9% at end-2024. The ratio of non-performing exposures to total loans to non-financial corporates was 1.8% at end-2024.
In terms of ESG, Slovenia has a high ESG Relevance Score for Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. These scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators have in Fitch’s proprietary Sovereign Rating Model.
Factors that could lead to negative rating action or downgrade include failure to keep the general government debt/GDP ratio on a downward trajectory or a deterioration in medium-term growth potential. Conversely, further reduction in general government debt/GDP or evidence of continued resilience to external shocks could lead to positive rating action or upgrade.
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