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Investing.com -- S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Tajikistan’s ’B’ long-term and ’B’ short-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings with a stable outlook on Friday.
The rating agency cited Tajikistan’s ability to meet its moderate debt-servicing needs over the next 12 months, with government debt expected to remain low and predominantly concessional, offsetting risks from the country’s volatile external position.
Tajikistan’s economy expanded by 8.1% in the first half of 2025, according to preliminary official figures. S&P expects growth to slow to about 5.5% during 2026-2028, driven by normalizing remittances and softer metal prices affecting industrial production.
The country remains heavily dependent on labor remittances, which accounted for 48% of GDP in 2024. Financial inflows including remittances increased by 44% year-on-year in 2024 and surged another 63% in the first quarter of 2025, with over 90% coming from Commonwealth of Independent States countries, primarily Russia.
Tajikistan’s flagship Rogun Hydro Power Project represents a significant investment, with remaining costs estimated at $6.4 billion (40% of projected 2025 GDP) to complete by 2035. The government has negotiated financing packages with multilateral and bilateral partners to cover about 50% of this cost, though there have been delays in unlocking funding from the World Bank.
The country’s external position has strengthened after posting five consecutive current account surpluses since 2020. Foreign currency reserves reached a record high of $4.6 billion at the end of March 2025, covering 7.4 months of imports.
S&P projects Tajikistan’s fiscal deficit at 1.2% of GDP in 2025, below the IMF program target of 2.5%, though it expects the deficit to gradually widen to 2.0%-2.5% of GDP over 2026-2028.
The country’s $500 million Eurobond maturing in 2027 began amortizing in 2025, with principal payments of $83 million being made in six equal semiannual installments through September 2027.
S&P identified state-owned enterprises as a source of contingent liabilities, with their total liabilities estimated at about 32% of GDP as of April 1, 2025, mostly from national power company Barqi Tojik.
Average inflation remained at 3.6% in 2025, below the National Bank of Tajikistan’s target range. In response, the central bank lowered its policy rate to 7.75% in August 2025, its third cut this year.
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