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Jesse Felder
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Jesse Felder's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Jesse Felder's articles, including current analysis & comment.
A complete archive of Jesse Felder's articles, including current analysis & comment.
Sidestep the Speculative Euphoria with a More Fundamental Approach to Markets
By Jesse Felder - Jun 23, 2025
CHART
According to Bloomberg’s Gina Martin Adams, “The S&P 500 Index has outpaced our macro model-based fair value for a record stretch since 2022, as the dominance of the Magnificent Seven has...
High Valuations and Market Weakness Signal Growing Risk of Correction
By Jesse Felder - Apr 21, 2025
Over the last 25 years, US companies have benefited from increasing globalization of both trade and capital, which enabled secular disinflation and increasing profitability.
As Goldman Sachs points...
Has a New Bull Market in Diversification Officially Begun?
By Jesse Felder - Mar 31, 2025
This year has seen a dramatic shift in markets with U.S. equity leadership giving way to a resurgence in overseas shares.
“The bubble in American exceptionalism has been building for years. The...
The Danger of Betting Big on Big Tech Today
By Jesse Felder - Mar 24, 2025
As noted last week, there is a major shift underway in the global monetary system that requires a complete rethink on the part of investors.
“The underlying forces of anti-globalization will...
A Major Shift in the Global Monetary System Could Be Underway
By Jesse Felder - Mar 17, 2025
In a must-read new report, my friends at Goehring & Rozencwajg write, “A major shift in the global monetary system may be imminent. History offers a clear precedent: every past commodity bull...
Is the US Stock Market Poised for a Decade of Underperformance?
By Jesse Felder - Mar 10, 2025
STAT
The current bull market has been extraordinary.
As Bridgewater reports, “Out of any 15-year period to be invested in equities dating back to 1970, the one we’ve just lived through was the best....
Another Massive Misallocation Of Capital? AI Spending Bubble May Be a Risk
By Jesse Felder - Mar 03, 2025
LINK
If the history of the capital cycle is any guide, the massive allocation into AI capex in recent years is very likely to lead to especially poor returns for investors in the years to come,...
Will Buy the Dip Strategy Fail in 2025? Investors Face Growing Instability Risks
By Jesse Felder - Feb 17, 2025
The appetite for leverage in the stock market currently appears insatiable. “Retail daredevils — undeterred by recent Wall Street jitters over AI and crypto — are going long, pumping up leveraged...
Buying Good Things Vs. Buying Things Well
By Jesse Felder - Feb 10, 2025
QUOTE
“Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying things well – and if you don’t understand the difference, you shouldn’t be an investor.” –Howard Marks
Clearly, many operating in...
Are We Living in the Age of Bubbles?
By Jesse Felder - Feb 03, 2025
If you’re looking to understand what drove Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares to a record one-day loss of market cap last Monday, look no further. Jeffrey Emanuel wrote up the definitive analysis last...