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James Knightley

Think ING
  • Analysis & Comment

James Knightley's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Knightley's articles, including current analysis & comment.

The Fed cut the policy rate 25bp as expected. They think three more cuts will be enough to boost growth and prompt a revival in the jobs market, but the market is skeptical. We look for four more 25bp...
In next week’s round of central bank meetings, we’re looking for 25bp cuts from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. Meanwhile, the Bank of England should hit pause, though any...
After benchmarking with state unemployment insurance tax records, the Bureau for Labor Statistics has acknowledged that it overestimated employment in the US by 911,000 in the 12M to March 2025. Thus,...
Another soft jobs report is intensifying calls for meaningful Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Consumers are already worried about squeezed spending power from tariffs and are now increasingly...
The US inflation report next week - the last key data point before the next Federal Reserve meeting on 17 September - should be no barrier to a rate cut. In Central and Eastern Europe, inflation...
Today has seen more evidence that the US jobs market is cooling markedly with vacancies dropping sharply and the quits rate pointing to wage growth slowing to 3%. With little inflation pressure coming...
In our latest live webinar, our team followed up this week’s all-important inflation release by sharing their thoughts on the Federal Reserve’s rate cut trajectory, the consensus in...
Inflation was broadly in line with expectations as tariffs continue to be largely absorbed within US corporate profit margins. This gives the Fed the room to respond to the weaker jobs backdrop and...
After the Bank of England's unprecedented split vote this week, James Smith asks: why can't central banks just make their minds up on rate cuts? Interest rate expectations are set for a volatile...
We're changing our call on the Fed. The pressure to cut rates is intensifying as the US jobs market and the growth story are no longer looking quite so solid. While prices will rise due to tariffs,...