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On Thursday, Barclays (LON:BARC) adjusted its stance on Equinor (EQNR:NO) (NYSE:EQNR), downgrading the company’s stock rating from Overweight to Equalweight and setting a price target of NOK 325.00. The change reflects concerns over the company’s significant exposure to European gas markets and challenges in its low-carbon investment portfolio.
Equinor, which has about 40% of its production tied to European Union gas, is particularly vulnerable to price fluctuations, as a large portion of its gas is sold on the spot market. In light of potential geopolitical developments, such as a ceasefire in Ukraine, Equinor’s position could be adversely affected more than others in the sector.
The downgrade also follows recent struggles with Equinor’s renewable energy investments. The company’s equity investment in Orsted (CSE:ORSTED), a key part of its low-carbon strategy, has seen a decline in value, with Orsted shares dropping approximately 29% year-to-date, underperforming compared to the Stoxx 600 Utilities Index, which is up 16% over the same period.
In addition, Equinor’s financial guidance has been altered. At the 2025 Capital Markets Update, the company announced the removal of its standard share buyback (SBB) guidance of $1.2 billion per year. It now provides SBB guidance only for specific years, rather than as a standard annual figure.
Barclays also noted that Equinor does not present an attractive investment based on its forecasted free cash flow yield for 2025-2027, which is estimated at around 13%. This assessment, coupled with the broader challenges faced by the company, has led to the decision to downgrade the stock rating to Equalweight.
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