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Tuesday, HSBC analyst Puneet Gulati increased the price target on DLF (NSE:DLF) Ltd. (DLFU:IN) shares to INR1,050, up from INR1,010, while reiterating a Buy rating on the stock. The revision reflects a positive outlook on the company's recent project launches and anticipated cash flows, particularly from the high-end Dahlias development.
Gulati adjusted the forecast to consider the strong pre-sales and cash flows from the Dahlias project, along with one-time adjustments. The report also noted delays in the launch and completion of two major projects, which have been pushed back by a year. While these changes have significantly affected reported revenue and earnings projections, they are not expected to have a meaningful impact on cash flows.
The earnings per share (EPS) estimates for DLF have been reduced by 9-39% for the fiscal years 2025-27 due to the revised project timelines. HSBC's valuation of DLF uses a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.9%, which remains unchanged. The net asset value (NAV) per share for March 2025 has been computed at INR725, up from INR694.
The price target of INR1,050 is based on a 45% premium to the NAV estimate, which is consistent with the firm's historical application of a three standard deviation (3SD) premium above the mean. Previously, this premium was discounted back three months, but this adjustment has now been removed.
According to Gulati, the new price target suggests a 51% upside potential for DLF shares. Despite the optimistic price target, the report also acknowledges potential downside risks, including a market slowdown in the National Capital Region (NCR (NYSE:VYX)), delays in obtaining launch approvals, and a possible sharp increase in construction capital expenditures.
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