Five things to watch in markets in the week ahead
Investing.com -- The rally in gold has further to run, market strategists believe, even after the metal reached its $4,000 per ounce target.
Bank of America now sees the bullion climbing to $5,000/oz next year, with an average price of $4,400. The bank’s strategists link the next leg higher to renewed investor appetite.
“Looking into 2026, a 14% increase of investment demand – similar to what we have seen this year – could lift gold to $5,000/oz,” a team led by Michael Widmer wrote in a note.
A more aggressive move to $6,000 would require a 28% jump in investment flows, while the note also outlines a “blue sky” scenario of $8,000/oz, which would require a 55% increase in gold purchases — a threshold BofA says looks difficult to achieve near term.
Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have already shown extraordinary momentum. BofA highlights that ETF inflows surged 880% year-on-year in September, reaching a record $14 billion. Total physical and paper gold holdings have risen above 5% of global equity and fixed income markets by value, almost doubling their previous share.
The strategists caution that after such a surge, “markets could consolidate near-term,” especially as positioning looks stretched.
A mix of fiscal and monetary dynamics continues to underpin the bull case. BofA cites the White House’s “unorthodox policy framework” marked by fiscal deficits, rising debt levels, a push to shrink the current account deficit and ease policy even with inflation around 3%.
That environment, in strategists’ view, keeps gold attractive both as a hedge and as a reserve diversification tool for central banks and retail investors.
Still, the team flags several risks that could interrupt the rally. These include a potential Supreme Court ruling on President Trump’s tariffs, the possibility of a hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve if economic data improves, and the outcome of next year’s U.S. mid-term elections, which may influence how easily the administration can implement its economic agenda.
On silver, BofA says the market remains in deficit despite expecting an 11% drop in demand next year as solar manufacturers cut silver loadings per panel.
“An 11% decline in total silver demand next year will not be enough to push the market into a surplus, but deficits should fall by more than half,” the strategists write.
They note that supply remains tight and that even with a smaller deficit, the white metal could still push toward $65/oz in 2026, supported by continued investor demand and lingering dislocations in the physical market.