KeyBanc maintains Apple stock rating, sees iPhone ASPs driving growth

Investing.com - KeyBanc Capital Markets has maintained its Sector Weight rating on Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), currently valued at $3.9 trillion, as the company approaches its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report, scheduled for October 30.

The firm’s Key First Look Data (KFLD) showed September hardware spending increased 17% month-over-month, exceeding the three-year average growth of 12%, though spending remained down 15% year-over-year.

Third-quarter indexed spending grew just 1% quarter-over-quarter, significantly below the three-year average of 27%, according to KeyBanc’s analysis.

Despite mixed spending data, KeyBanc raised its iPhone estimates, suggesting Apple is positioned to exceed iPhone expectations for fiscal Q4 while likely guiding in line with expectations for fiscal Q1 2026.

The firm identified average selling prices (ASPs), rather than unit sales volume, as the primary driver for Apple’s growth in fiscal year 2026, though analysts noted the stock appears expensive at all-time highs with "lofty expectations" already priced in. Trading at $262.77, near its 52-week high, InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is currently overvalued. Subscribers can access 15+ additional ProTips and comprehensive valuation metrics in the Pro Research Report.

In other recent news, Apple is making notable adjustments to its production strategy by significantly reducing orders for the iPhone Air while ramping up production of other iPhone 17 models, as reported by Nikkei. Additionally, Apple is encountering delays in the development of its foldable iPad, with potential launch pushed to 2029 or later due to engineering challenges, according to Bloomberg. In the realm of financial analysis, Goldman Sachs has increased its price target for Apple to $279 from $266, maintaining a Buy rating and anticipating the company will exceed revenue and earnings estimates for the upcoming fiscal fourth-quarter report. Similarly, Wedbush has reiterated its Outperform rating and maintained a $310 price target, expecting Apple to surpass Wall Street’s revenue estimate of approximately $102 billion, fueled by strong iPhone 17 performance and growth in services. Meanwhile, Apple is facing a new antitrust complaint from 55 Chinese iPhone and iPad users who have filed a grievance with China’s market regulator, alleging market dominance abuse. These users claim Apple restricts app distribution and payments to its own platforms while imposing high commissions. These developments highlight Apple’s ongoing strategic adjustments and challenges in both product development and regulatory environments.

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