TSX gains after CPI shows US inflation rose 3%

Investing.com - Canada’s main stock exchange were higher on Friday, after the index extended its recovery from an 11-day low notched earlier this week in the prior session.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up by 166 points or 0.55% at 30,353.07. 

On Thursday, index rose by 0.6% to 30,186.28, spurred on by gains in the materials, energy and financial sectors, which are more heavily weighted in the average.

A measure of retail sales in Canada in August rose in line with expectations thanks in part to more spending on new cars and at grocery stores, although the advance estimate for September’s gauge showed a dip in the figure of 0.7%.

The numbers come as markets are betting that the Bank of Canada will opt to slash interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week in a bid to bolster economic activity.

Meanwhile, investors were eyeing comments from U.S. President Donald Trump, who said on Thursday that all trade negotiations with Canada have been terminated. He cited what he described as a “fraudulent” advertisement sponsored by the Ontario government involving late President Ronald Reagan.

U.S. stocks higher

U.S. stocks were higher. with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining 240 points, or 0.5%, the S&P 500 index up 48 points, or 0.7%, and the NASDAQ Compositeclimbed 235 points, or 1%. 

Headline consumer prices in the U.S. rose by 3.0% in the twelve months to September, faster than the prior month but cooler than estimates for a rise of 3.1%, in an official report that will likely be closely watched by Federal Reserve policymakers mulling over a potential interest rate cut next week.

In August, the gauge of inflation, whose release was delayed by 10 days due to an ongoing federal government shutdown, stood at 2.9%. Furloughed workers at the Bureau of Labor Statistics were temporarily recalled to put together the consumer price index because of a November 1 deadline for the Social Security Administration to unveil its annual adjustments to benefits, which take changes in cost of living into account.

Month-on-month, the figure eased to 0.3%, compared to expectations that it would match August’s pace of 0.4%.

The so-called "core" consumer price index (CPI), which the Fed assesses as an underlying measure of inflation in the world’s biggest economy, was 3.0% year-over-year and 0.2% on a monthly basis. Analysts had anticipated readings of 3.1% and 0.3%, which would have both matched the number in August.

The main averages on Wall Street ended in the green on Thursday, buoyed largely by President Donald Trump’s confirmation that he will meet with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month.

The S&P 500 is on track for a 1.1% gain this week, while the NASDAQ Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are up nearly 1.2% week to date.

CPI data looms large after shutdown delays

Still, investors were reluctant to make big moves ahead of Friday’s release of the September Consumer Price Index, which was delayed by the over-three-week-old U.S. government shutdown

With the next Federal Reserve policy meeting looming next week, investors are watching the inflation reading closely. The Fed is expected to cut rates this month by 25 basis points, followed by another reduction in December.

The delayed CPI release has taken on added importance given the data vacuum caused by the government shutdown, which has disrupted most official economic reporting.

"Despite tariff-led price pressure in some sectors, there are indications that airfares, hospitality and housing should be a drag on the CPI basket. With headline and core close to 3.0%, the Fed can cut and signal more easing ahead when it meets next week." said ING analyst Francesco Pesole, in a note.

"But markets are fully pricing in 50bp by year-end, and without any jobs data at hand, it will be hard to speculate much beyond the December meeting."

U.S.-China trade meeting confirmed

Sentiment received a boost after the White House confirmed on Thursday that Trump will meet Xi in South Korea during next week’s APEC summit, a development that buoyed markets after recent heightened U.S.–China trade friction.

The planned meeting follows Washington’s threat to impose 100% tariffs on certain Chinese goods and Beijing’s introduction of export curbs on rare earth materials.

The prospect of renewed dialogue lifted investor hopes for de-escalation in trade disputes between the two largest economies in the world that have clouded the global outlook.

That said, Trump also said that all trade negotiations with Canada have been terminated, accusing Ottawa of using a “fraudulent” advertisement involving late President Ronald Reagan.

Intel beats Q3 expectations

The earnings calendar is relatively light Friday, but next week brings a deluge, with five of the Magnificent Seven reporting results, including Apple and Microsoft.

That said, there are still a number of companies in the spotlight.

Intel stock surged premarket after the semiconductor beat expectations for its third quarter profit helped by dramatic cost cutting measures.

The results were the company’s first earnings announcement after multibillion-dollar investments from Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and Japan’s SoftBank as well as an unprecedented U.S. government stake, with investors anticipating a major cash boost.

Ford stock gained premarket after the carmaker posted quarterly income which topped expectations thanks to strong demand for its SUVs and pickup trucks.

Target stock rose slightly after the retailer announced it will cut about 1,800 corporate-level roles, representing around 8% of its global headquarters workforce, in a major restructuring initiative.

Crude set to rise for the week

Oil prices pushed higher in choppy trading, leaving crude on track for weekly gains as fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies over the war in Ukraine drove supply concerns.

Brent futures rose 0.2% to $66.11 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.1% to $61.85 per barrel.

Both benchmarks jumped more than 5% on Thursday and were set for about a 7% weekly gain, the biggest since mid-June.

Gold on pace for weekly drop

Gold prices were headed for their first weekly decline in 10, as investors locked in profits after recent record highs and awaited the U.S. inflation data due later in the day.

Spot gold was last down 1.7% at $4,054.68 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures fell 1.9% to $4,068.76 an ounce.

Despite touching an all-time peak earlier in the week, bullion has now slipped by more than 3% so far this week, putting it on track for its largest weekly dip since November 2024.