Mondelez stock price target lowered to $72 at Evercore ISI on European elasticity concerns

Investing.com - Evercore ISI has reduced its price target on Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ) to $72.00 from $73.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. Currently trading at $62.56, InvestingPro analysis indicates the stock is overvalued relative to its Fair Value, with analyst targets ranging from $67 to $88.

The firm cited higher price elasticity in Europe as a key factor contributing to slower sales growth for the snack food giant. Evercore ISI has consequently lowered its third-quarter consolidated organic sales forecast to 3.5%, below the consensus estimate of 4.5%. The $80.95B market cap company has posted revenue of $37.1B in the last twelve months, with modest growth of 3.14%.

The research firm also reduced its 2025 organic sales growth forecast to 4.4%, compared to the consensus of 5%. Analysts warned that near-term sales risk could potentially drive Mondelez stock down by 5-10%, which would place it at the low end of its 10-year price-to-earnings range of 18x.

Despite these short-term concerns, Evercore ISI continues to view Mondelez as "a solid long-term growth story at a reasonable price." The firm projects a path to algorithm-aligned earnings per share growth in 2026 and 2027, assuming organic sales growth exceeds 3%, cocoa costs deflate from current levels, and the company increases its reinvestment in growth initiatives. InvestingPro data shows the company maintains a FAIR financial health score, with an attractive 3.2% dividend yield. Get access to the full financial health analysis and 12+ additional ProTips with an InvestingPro subscription.

The new $72 price target represents approximately 15% upside potential and equates to roughly 20x Evercore’s 2027 earnings per share estimate, compared to the average global consumer packaged goods 2026 P/E ratio of 20x and Hershey’s 28x multiple.

In other recent news, Mondelez International reported its second-quarter earnings per share of $0.73, a 12% decline, though it exceeded expectations set by Stifel by $0.04. This performance was attributed to slightly better revenue and a smaller contraction in operating profit margins due to lower selling, general, and administrative expenses. Following these results, Stifel raised its price target for Mondelez to $76.00, maintaining a Buy rating. Bernstein SocGen also raised its price target to $88.00 from $79.00, describing the financial results as "solid" and maintaining an Outperform rating. Piper Sandler increased its price target to $67.00, citing strong European Union pricing as a positive factor, although cocoa costs remain a concern for future earnings growth. Meanwhile, JPMorgan assumed coverage with an Overweight rating and a price target of $75.00, emphasizing Mondelez’s global footprint and focus on the snacking category as advantages. Bernstein reiterated its Outperform rating, focusing on potential earnings sensitivity to cocoa prices, suggesting limited downside despite market volatility. These developments reflect a mix of cautious optimism and strategic positioning among analysts regarding Mondelez’s future performance.

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