5 big analyst AI moves: Apple lifted to Buy, AI chip bets reassessed

Investing.com -- Here are the biggest analyst moves in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) for this week.

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Loop Capital upgrades Apple on multi-year iPhone growth cycle

Loop Capital upgraded Apple to Buy from Hold and lifted its price target to $315 from $226, citing stronger-than-expected demand for the iPhone 17 and the start of a multi-year growth cycle expected to last through 2027.

"We are NOW at the front end of AAPL’s long-anticipated adoption cycle that suggests ongoing iPhone shipment expansion through CY2027," the broker’s analysts wrote in a note.

They project “three consecutive record iPhone shipment years (CY2025–CY2027),” forecasting 238 million units in 2025, 250 million in 2026, and more than 260 million in 2027.

Loop analysts added that “there is still more iPhone unit (and ASP) upside to Street than is understood,” emphasizing that average selling prices remain “materially higher than Street” estimates and could stay elevated for some time.

The upgrade follows what the firm called a “far better than anticipated” iPhone 17 launch. Based on its supply chain checks, Loop estimated third-quarter iPhone shipments reached 56.5 million, surpassing expectations.

“Given all the consternation surrounding the iPhone launch, there can be little debate on how successful the iPhone 17 has been thus far since its debut,” analysts said.

They highlighted that the iPhone 17 Air model sold out within minutes in China and could add “a 4-6 million unit upside” in the fourth quarter. They also pointed to Apple’s resilience in China, saying the company was “the sole major player posting QoQ upside in CQ3 despite myriad obstacles.”

Looking ahead, Loop said upcoming models—including the iPhone 18 “foldable” and the “AI Phone”—could further extend Apple’s momentum over the next several years.

Barclays turns selective on AI chip stocks ahead of earnings

Barclays said it is becoming “more selective with names that have direct AI exposure” going into third-quarter earnings, advising investors to focus on large-cap leaders Nvidia, Broadcom, and AMD.

“We still believe we are in the early innings of an AI investment cycle,” the bank wrote, but cautioned that “certain stocks are pricing in much of the full benefit of AI deployment.”

While “AI exposed names in our coverage still have potential for strong beats and raises,” some “selling the news” could follow as “the bar is high," it added.

Barclays downgraded Marvell Technology, Astera Labs, and Lumentum to Equal Weight, saying their “risk/reward for various reasons looks less attractive compared to other AI involved names.”

It said Marvell’s “ASIC story into CY26 is less robust than initially expected,” while Astera is “undergoing a major product transition from the retiming portfolio to the switching products.”

Lumentum, it noted, “has seen a run-up of close to 60%” in the past three months, leaving its “risk-reward profile more attractive for peers.”

At the same time, the bank upgraded KLA Corp. to Overweight, citing a “positive long-term outlook for increased process control intensity” and its “exposure to Leading Edge where we expect strong growth looking ahead.”

Among stocks where Barclays sees upside risk are AMD, Broadcom, Marvell, Micron, Nvidia, and Western Digital, while downside risks remain for Astera Labs, Marvell, and Texas Instruments.

The bank also said “China will again be a major thematic,” noting that KLA and Lam Research “need to take down numbers on BIS exposure.”

Mizuho lifts Broadcom target on Anthropic, OpenAI AI deals

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh raised Broadcom’s price target to $435, pointing to new AI growth drivers stemming from partnerships with Anthropic and OpenAI.

He said Anthropic has emerged as Broadcom’s fourth-largest customer, with its expanding AI rack deployments potentially generating about $10 billion in revenue by the second half of 2026.

“We were on the ground at OCP last week following key announcements,” Rakesh wrote, adding that “Anthropic adds another tailwind.” The analyst said Anthropic is “potentially now customer number 4” for Broadcom, while OpenAI (“OAI”) is “number 5 with a ~10GW deal.”

"We now believe Anthropic is AVGO’s fourth customer, ramping to $10B of revenue with ‘AI Racks’ in 2HF26E," said Rakesh. He also described OpenAI’s partnership as “incremental,” estimating roughly “2GW capacity buildout in 2026E, up ~2x y/y.”

OpenAI’s infrastructure could scale rapidly, with Mizuho expecting “2GW/3GW/4GW in 2026/27/28E respectively across GPUs/ASICs.” Other major cloud players could also expand 2–4GW over the next few years, it said.

Broadcom unveiled several new networking products to support the AI buildout. Rakesh pointed to its third-generation CPO Tomahawk 6-Davisson, offering over 70% lower power consumption, and the Thor Ultra 800G NIC, featuring telemetry, load-balancing RoCE, and an open architecture.

The analyst also highlighted Broadcom’s Ethernet for Scale-Up Networking (ESUN) as “a key announcement,” saying it “expands the scope originally covered by SUE-T” and “could increase share in Scale-Up vs NVLink/UALink.”

Morgan Stanley names Spotify a Top Pick on AI, pricing momentum

Morgan Stanley added Spotify to its list of Top Picks, citing accelerating growth, AI tailwinds, and strong pricing power. The Wall Street bank maintained its Overweight (OW) rating and $800 price target (PT) on the stock, saying it now sees the music streaming giant as one of its preferred names in media and entertainment.

“We remain OW SPOT shares and see ~20% upside to our $800 PT,” analyst Benjamin Swinburne wrote. He said Spotify “kicked off a new pricing cycle this Fall and is poised to accelerate growth into next year,” adding that “AI [is] a tailwind.”

Swinburne expects revenue growth to strengthen with “upside to consensus EBIT,” and said it is “optimistic SPOT can leverage AI into tangible financial benefits in the years ahead.”

He flagged Spotify’s recent product enhancements, noting that “the recent improvement to its free tier, which includes an hour of on-demand listening, is meaningful and can drive upside to MAU and Premium net adds.”

The analyst also pointed to price increases of 14–17 percent in Australia, saying they could serve as a “template for other bundled markets in ’26,” with a U.S. price hike expected by the first quarter of next year.

Morgan Stanley projects a 14–15 percent compound annual revenue growth (CAGR) rate through 2028, with a bull case of 16–17 percent. It forecasts about 40 percent EBIT CAGR through 2028, “backed by a 90%+ subscription model.”

Wolfe initiates SailPoint at Outperform on SaaS, AI tailwinds

This week, Wolfe Research initiated coverage on SailPoint with an Outperform rating and a $27 price target, saying the identity governance specialist is set for sustained high growth as it transitions further into a Software-as-a-Service model.

The target is based on roughly 12 times expected 2026 enterprise value-to-sales, with the stock currently trading at about a 15% discount to larger growth peers.

Analyst Joshua Tilton said SailPoint’s decision to focus strictly on governance, rather than expand into adjacent identity segments, has created “discipline rather than strategic limitation.”

He described the shift from an on-premise, enterprise-focused business to a cloud-based platform as a key catalyst. “We believe this unlocks a meaningful mid-market opportunity" in a total addressable market of about $55 billion," Tilton said.

The analyst cited survey data showing Identity Governance and Administration ranked as the top priority within identity security budgets, with SailPoint posting the largest year-on-year gain in spending intentions among 18 security vendors.

At the company’s recent user conference, 67% of customers said they plan to increase spending over the next year.

Tilton said SailPoint is well positioned to benefit from the rise of AI and autonomous agents, noting that governance—rather than access provisioning—will be the most critical layer of identity security.

“We see SailPoint as best positioned to deliver on the most challenging component (governance, not access) by ensuring that agents only access the appropriate applications at machine speed,” he wrote.

Wolfe’s upside case calls for annual recurring revenue growth of around 30% in 2026, well above management guidance, followed by durable mid- to high-20% growth thereafter.

While Thoma Bravo still controls roughly 86% of the float, Tiltion said any divestments should be viewed as opportunities.

“If they’re selling, we’re buying!” the note said.

Key risks include intensifying competition in identity governance, slower-than-expected SaaS adoption, and the potential for Thoma Bravo’s ownership to cap near-term stock performance.