Morgan Stanley maintains Birkenstock Overweight rating, $57 target

Published 15/05/2025, 19:24
Morgan Stanley maintains Birkenstock Overweight rating, $57 target

On Thursday, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reiterated its Overweight rating on Birkenstock Holding plc (NYSE:BIRK) with a consistent price target of $57.00, while the stock currently trades at $57.69. According to InvestingPro data, analyst consensus is strongly bullish, with price targets ranging from $56.15 to $81.00. The firm’s analysis highlighted Birkenstock’s ability to navigate through current industry challenges and capitalize on market share gains. According to Morgan Stanley, Birkenstock’s management expressed confidence during their recent earnings call, noting that the company has been able to outperform peers amid a broader slowdown in the apparel and footwear sectors.

Birkenstock’s strong performance in the second quarter was underscored by robust top-line momentum growth, which has been sustained quarter-to-date. InvestingPro data shows impressive revenue growth of 20.51% over the last twelve months, with total revenue reaching $1.93 billion. The company’s expansion into "closed-toe" shoe styles has been a significant factor in its growth, with sales of these silhouettes increasing at twice the rate of sandals. The non-Boston silhouettes have seen growth on par with the popular Boston style. This diversification of the product line has been a key driver in broadening the company’s assortment.

The company also reported on the earnings call that its gross margin (GM) in the second quarter of 2025 exceeded expectations, rising by 140 basis points year-over-year, compared to the consensus forecast of a 7 basis point increase. This improvement in gross margin was attributed to better absorption of fixed costs, particularly as the Passewalk factory’s production ramped up. Management anticipates that the gross margin for the full year will be close to 60%, slightly above the consensus estimate of 59.2%. This aligns with InvestingPro’s analysis, which highlights impressive gross profit margins as one of several key strengths, with the company maintaining a robust 58.7% margin over the last twelve months.

Birkenstock’s updated guidance for the fiscal year has taken into account the potential adverse effects of tariffs and foreign exchange (FX) fluctuations. Management indicated that most inventory intended for sale in the US market in FY25 had already been shipped before April 1st, which suggests that the financial impact for FY25 will primarily be from the negative translation effects of a depreciating US dollar. Furthermore, management anticipates that capacity utilization benefits in FY26 could partially offset the impact of tariffs and FX, with consensus estimates predicting an approximate 40 basis point expansion of the FY25 EBITDA margin to 31.1%. InvestingPro’s comprehensive financial health assessment rates BIRK as "GREAT" with a strong overall score of 3.17 out of 5, suggesting robust operational efficiency despite these challenges.

In other recent news, Birkenstock Holding plc has been the focus of several analyst reports, highlighting a mix of optimism and caution. UBS analysts have raised the price target for Birkenstock to $72, maintaining a Buy rating, and are optimistic about the company’s upcoming second-quarter report. They expect solid performance and growth, although they caution about potential risks from foreign exchange movements. Meanwhile, BMO Capital Markets has maintained an Outperform rating with a $70 price target, expressing confidence in Birkenstock’s resilience amidst market fluctuations and its strategic focus on growth areas.

Stifel analysts have revised their price target downward to $62 but continue to recommend a Buy rating, citing Birkenstock’s ability to withstand market challenges. They note that potential tariff changes could significantly impact the company’s future performance. Evercore ISI has provided a broader industry perspective, indicating that while sportswear companies like Nike (NYSE:NKE) and On could face severe EBIT reductions due to tariffs, Birkenstock might see a more modest impact.

Additionally, BMO Capital Markets reaffirmed their positive outlook on Birkenstock, emphasizing its strong revenue growth and robust margins. They highlighted the company’s direct-to-consumer operations and Americas segment as key contributors to its expansion. Birkenstock’s management remains optimistic about future growth, anticipating increased direct-to-consumer sales in the coming years.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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