Progressive stock price target lowered to $246 by Wells Fargo on slowing growth

Investing.com - Wells Fargo has lowered its price target on Progressive Corp. (NYSE:PGR) to $246.00 from $266.00 while maintaining an Equal Weight rating on the stock. According to InvestingPro data, the insurance giant, currently valued at $132.82B, appears undervalued with a P/E ratio of 13.2.

The insurance company’s shares fell approximately 7% against a flat S&P market following the release of September data showing slowing personal auto policy-in-force growth and a weaker underlying loss ratio.

Wells Fargo adjusted its financial projections to account for both the growth slowdown and margin pressure, noting that even though growth remains strong by historical standards, the deceleration is significant enough to impact valuation.

The firm expects Progressive shares to remain range-bound until growth reaches a bottom, with 2026 presenting challenging year-over-year comparisons for both growth and margins.

Wells Fargo also highlighted that tariffs have not yet fully materialized in loss cost trends, with their complete impact expected to be visible by the end of the fourth quarter, creating limited potential for positive earnings revisions in 2026. Despite these challenges, Progressive maintains a GREAT overall financial health score of 3.28 according to InvestingPro metrics.

In other recent news, Progressive Corporation reported a significant 30% increase in net income for August 2025, amounting to $1.22 billion compared to $935 million in the same month last year. The company’s net premiums written rose by 11% to $7.2 billion, and net premiums earned increased by 18% to $7.04 billion. Earnings per share for common shareholders improved to $2.07, up from $1.59 in August 2024. Additionally, BMO Capital downgraded Progressive’s stock rating from Outperform to Market Perform due to competitive concerns, adjusting its price target to $250 from $279. In contrast, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its price target for Progressive to $270 from $268, following an upward revision of earnings per share estimates based on the company’s August earnings report. BMO Capital also adjusted its price target to $252 from $250, reflecting a slightly improved outlook for net investment income and premium growth. Meanwhile, Evercore ISI lowered its price target to $250 from $273, citing increased competition in the auto insurance market. These developments reflect a mix of optimism and caution among analysts regarding Progressive’s future performance.

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