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Investing.com - Benchmark has reiterated its Buy rating and $12.00 price target on Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (NASDAQ:RRGB), representing a 98% upside from the current $6.05 trading price, following the restaurant chain’s strategic plan announcement and updated guidance. According to InvestingPro analysis, the stock is currently trading slightly above its Fair Value, with analysts’ targets ranging from $3.50 to $13.00.
Red Robin issued an 8K filing on July 14th outlining its new "First Choice Strategic Plan" under recently appointed CEO Dave Pace. The plan aims to defend the foundational reset in culinary and hospitality established by the company’s previous North Star initiative. The strategic pivot comes as InvestingPro data shows the company facing significant challenges, with a weak financial health score and a concerning current ratio of 0.46.
The strategic roadmap includes plans to refranchise approximately 25 to 50 company-owned units to generate funding for marketing investments and address deferred capital expenditure needs.
In conjunction with the strategic plan announcement, Red Robin updated its second-quarter 2025 guidance, now expecting same-store sales to decline approximately 4%, compared to previous guidance of a 3% decrease.
Despite the lower sales forecast, the company’s profitability outlook has improved significantly, with adjusted EBITDA now expected to reach at least $17.7 million versus prior guidance of $13 million to $16 million, well above the consensus estimate of $13.9 million.
In other recent news, Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Inc. announced its new "First Choice" strategic plan, aiming to enhance long-term shareholder value and update its financial outlook. The company expects a second-quarter comparable restaurant sales decline of approximately 4%, slightly worse than the previously forecasted 3% decrease. Despite this, Red Robin anticipates its Adjusted EBITDA will surpass prior expectations of $13 million to $16 million. The plan includes maintaining operational efficiencies, driving traffic, managing expenses, improving restaurant facilities, and creating a high-performance work environment.
In the first quarter of 2025, Red Robin reported stronger-than-anticipated profitability, with earnings per share at $0.19, significantly exceeding the forecasted loss of $0.39. Revenue reached $392.4 million, slightly below the expected $395.4 million, but the restaurant-level operating margin was 14.3%, exceeding the consensus forecast. Benchmark maintained its Buy rating and $12 price target for the company, attributing the positive results to improved labor efficiency and stable cost of goods sold. Red Robin’s management expressed optimism about the company’s operational excellence and cost efficiency measures, which have already led to meaningful profitability improvements.
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