TD Cowen lowers McDonald’s stock price target on weak U.S. sales

Published 10/10/2025, 15:18
TD Cowen lowers McDonald’s stock price target on weak U.S. sales

Investing.com - TD Cowen has reduced its price target on McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) to $320.00 from $330.00 while maintaining a Hold rating, citing weaker-than-expected U.S. same-store sales performance. The target sits within the broader analyst range of $250-$381, according to InvestingPro data, which also shows the stock trading near its 52-week low with an RSI indicating oversold conditions.

The firm lowered its third-quarter U.S. same-store sales forecast to 2% from 3% previously, falling below the Consensus Metrix estimate of 2.6%. TD Cowen’s checks indicate no significant improvement in traffic growth following the September 8 relaunch of Extra Value Meals, potentially masked by decelerating sales of snack wraps launched in July. This comes as InvestingPro reports nine analysts have revised their earnings expectations downward for the upcoming period.

The research firm noted a weakening value perception among quick-service’s low-income consumers since July 2025, despite McDonald’s intensifying value efforts. This trend may explain the third-quarter underperformance following the highly anticipated launch of snack wraps.

TD Cowen’s new price target reflects a multiple reduction to 23x FY2 P/E from 24x previously, in line with the three-year average but representing a 1x discount to the five-year average. The adjustment balances challenged U.S. traffic growth against the stock’s defensive appeal and international operating market execution.

The firm expects McDonald’s shares to remain range-bound between approximately $290 and $320 per share, or 21x-24x FY2 P/E, until U.S. traffic shows more durable signs of improvement.

In other recent news, McDonald’s has seen a range of analyst actions and projections. Guggenheim reduced its price target for McDonald’s to $295, maintaining a Neutral rating due to softer restaurant industry trends. RBC Capital initiated coverage with a Sector Perform rating and a $320 price target, expressing concerns about McDonald’s focus on value offerings and the potential impact on consumer spending. Jefferies reiterated its Buy rating with a $360 price target, although it adjusted its U.S. same-store sales estimate for the third quarter to 2.5% and anticipated earnings per share slightly below consensus estimates.

KeyBanc maintained an Overweight rating and a $335 price target, aligning McDonald’s U.S. same-store sales growth with market expectations at +2.5% for the third quarter of 2025. Bernstein raised its price target to $320, maintaining a Market Perform rating, and highlighted McDonald’s competitive edge in value offerings. These developments reflect a mix of cautious optimism and strategic positioning within the fast-food sector.

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