Futures slip, bank earnings ahead, Powell to speak - what’s moving markets
Investing.com -- Technical indicators now suggest that the recent gold rally may be reaching peak momentum, Deutsche Bank analysts say, noting that the September-October move has already run for 29 trading days, longer than the historical median of 18-19 days.
The bank’s analyst Michael Hsueh highlights that the current rally has shown a stronger combination of trendiness and low volatility than earlier this year, which likely benefited trend-following strategies.
However, a recent rise in realised volatility implies that this favourable backdrop may be fading.
Even so, Hsueh does not interpret this as a signal for an imminent pullback. He points to the June-August period as a template, when gold paused without a meaningful correction.
The analyst also points out that fair value models have risen by $260-290/oz since early August, providing a cushion even as spot prices surged by nearly $700/oz.
A key difference from earlier in the year is the strong participation of white metals. Silver’s move to $51/oz has been fuelled by “record lease rates on Friday at 20% for 3-month silver,” and palladium has outperformed after lagging for most of 2025, Hsueh said.
He argues that this broader co-movement is closer to the long-term historical pattern and that it may have been the earlier gold-only rally that was the anomaly.
Positioning data from futures markets is currently unavailable due to the U.S. government shutdown, but ETF flows indicate a slowdown in buying rather than net selling.
Hsueh also notes a leaseback transaction by Umicore involving tied-up gold inventory, but he cautions against reading this as a directional view on price.
“In describing the decision, Umicore noted that historically stable lease rates mean that their annual lease costs "will be more than offset by reduced financing costs”,” he highlighted.
Hsueh believes that the gold-to-WTI ratio trade still has room to run, targeting a move toward the 72–73 range. That could be achieved either through gold moving higher to $4,450/oz or crude drifting toward the bank’s $55/bbl target for 2026, he added.