UPS stock price target lowered to $92 at Evercore ISI on macro concerns

Investing.com - Evercore ISI has reduced its price target on UPS (NYSE:UPS) to $92.00 from $97.00 while maintaining an "In Line" rating on the stock, citing macroeconomic headwinds and changing de minimis shipment rules. Currently trading at $88.06, InvestingPro analysis indicates UPS is undervalued, with the stock down 28% year-to-date.

The research firm kept its third-quarter 2025 earnings per share estimate unchanged at $1.29 but lowered its forecasts for the fourth quarter and beyond. Evercore ISI reduced its full-year 2025 EPS estimate to $6.51 from $6.65 and its 2026 EPS projection to $7.05 from $7.46. This aligns with broader analyst sentiment, as InvestingPro data shows 10 analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates downward. Despite challenges, UPS maintains a strong 7.6% dividend yield with a 15-year history of consecutive increases.

The downward revision comes amid what the firm describes as "an ongoing softening macro backdrop" affecting UPS’s business environment. Evercore ISI typically correlates UPS’s domestic revenue with retail sales and industrial production trends, but noted that the U.S. government shutdown has interrupted the reporting of this economic data.

China export data, which Evercore ISI uses to analyze UPS’s international revenue performance, showed deceleration in September. This international weakness contributed to the firm’s more cautious outlook on UPS’s future performance.

The research firm also expressed concern about UPS’s ability to "properly align its cost structure with these intensifying demand headwinds," particularly beyond the previously announced Amazon volume reduction that UPS has been managing through.

In other recent news, United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) announced the termination of its planned acquisition of Estafeta, as the closing conditions for the transaction were not met. This decision was disclosed in a company statement filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Additionally, UBS has adjusted its price target for UPS, lowering it to $110 from $118, while maintaining a Buy rating. UBS analyst Thomas Wadewitz noted that UPS’s domestic package market remained stable in the third quarter of 2025, despite a low double-digit year-over-year decline in domestic volumes.

Meanwhile, BMO Capital has downgraded UPS from Outperform to Market Perform, reducing its price target to $96 from $125. The downgrade was attributed to a challenging recovery in demand, especially in the business-to-business segment. On a positive note, UPS is making progress in its cost-cutting measures, as UBS maintained its $118 price target, highlighting the company’s efforts to offset reduced volumes from Amazon. In a separate development, VerifyMe Inc.’s subsidiary, PeriShip Global, LLC, has signed significant agreements with UPS, including a UPS Digital Channel Program Agreement and a UPS Partner API Access Agreement.

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