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Investing.com -- JPMorgan has lifted its long-term gold price forecast by 80% to $3,850 per ounce from $2,100, pointing to fundamental shifts in the macroeconomic and monetary landscape that require a new approach to forecasting.
The bank now sees the revised level as about 40% above consensus and continues to recommend exposure to gold miners, projecting more than 50% upside to its December 2027 fair values.
Analysts said the sharp repricing of gold—up more than 50% year-to-date—reflects “significant and arguably unprecedented” changes since President Trump’s re-election, including strong central bank purchases and renewed investor interest across equities and multi-asset portfolios.
“Our new framework leads us to upgrade our long-term gold price forecast by ~80% to $3,850/oz,” analysts led by Patrick Jones wrote, adding that their model combines both traditional and alternative approaches to value gold amid “unprecedented U.S. debt.”
The new methodology draws from five components: marginal cost and incentive pricing support, implied pricing from royalty and streaming deals, historic parallels from past reserve currency shifts, large-scale investor diversification into gold, and the metal’s implied value as a store of wealth.
Analysts said the higher long-term price forecast implies more than 50% upside to its December 2027 fair values for gold miners.
The first two factors, which JPMorgan considers conservative, suggest downside support between $1,800 and $2,500 per ounce, while the latter scenarios imply tail risks that could take gold to $6,000–$9,000 per ounce in extreme cases.
The analysts pointed out that during prior reserve currency transitions in the 1930s and 1970s, gold prices rose around 90% on average.
Their analysis also found that if non-U.S. investors were to shift just 0.5% of their U.S. asset holdings into gold—about $70 billion annually—prices could climb toward $6,000 by 2029.
“The implied price as a store of value amid unprecedented U.S. debt growth indicates a tail-risk scenario of gold prices exceeding ~$9,000/oz,” the report said.
JPMorgan maintained a bullish stance on EMEA gold miners, calling AngloGold Ashanti its top pick due to valuation, buyback potential, and Nevada growth opportunities.
Fresnillo remains a high-conviction Overweight, with the broker pointing to silver leverage and re-rating potential, while coverage was resumed on Gold Fields with a positive catalyst watch ahead of its November CMD.