US LNG exports surge but will buyers in China turn up?
Investing.com-- China’s economy showed unexpected resilience in the first half of 2025, prompting ANZ analysts to raise their full-year growth forecast while cautioning that deflation and external headwinds remain key risks.
The upgrade comes after stronger-than-expected exports and domestic consumption helped offset persistent weakness in the property sector, ANZ analysts said in a note.
ANZ now expects China’s real GDP to grow 5.1% in 2025, up from a previous estimate of 4.2%, citing a robust first-half expansion of 5.3%.
Exports during the first six months surged 5.9% year-on-year, contributing 1.7 percentage points to growth, while retail sales climbed 5.2%, aided by rebounding tourism, analysts noted.
However, nominal GDP growth of just 3.9% underscores lingering deflationary pressures, with CPI and PPI remaining in negative territory, they said.
The property downturn continues to weigh, though ANZ notes its drag has lessened, with new home sales declining just 5.2% in H1, a marked improvement from a 17.6% drop in 2024.
ANZ anticipates a 20bp interest rate cut and sustained fiscal stimulus, with over 10 trillion yuan in unused budget deficit capacity.
For 2026, ANZ revised GDP growth up to 4.8%, citing gradual rebalancing toward consumption.
Yet structural challenges persist, analysts added, warning that supply-side reforms alone may not revive demand.
The report highlighted the Politburo’s July meeting as a potential catalyst for clearer policy direction.