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The Canadian dollar experienced a temporary respite as U.S. President Donald Trump suspended his threat of imposing 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Despite this pause, granted in exchange for border and crime enforcement concessions, the loonie is anticipated to face a near-term decline but is expected to recover within a year, according to a recent Reuters poll.
The poll, conducted from February 3 to February 5, involved 35 foreign exchange analysts who foresee the Canadian dollar weakening by 0.6% to 1.44 per U.S. dollar, or 69.44 U.S. cents, in three months. This prediction marks a slight depreciation from the 1.43 level anticipated in last month’s poll. However, in a year’s time, the currency is projected to strengthen by 1.0% to 1.4167, an improvement from the 1.3950 previously estimated.
Since October, the Canadian dollar has weakened by approximately 5%, affected by trade uncertainties and a widening interest rate gap with the United States. The Bank of Canada has been reducing rates more rapidly than the U.S. Federal Reserve, leading to a 160 basis-point drop in the Canadian 2-year note yield compared to its U.S. counterpart, the most significant disparity since September 1997.
The potential implementation of tariffs in March could be pivotal for the loonie’s trajectory. MUFG Bank’s head of research, global markets EMEA and international securities, highlighted the importance of whether these tariffs are enforced.
The Bank of Canada has warned that a 25% tariff on all imports to the United States, matched by similar retaliation, could slash Canadian economic growth by 2.5 percentage points over a year, potentially triggering a recession.
Trade negotiations also present ongoing challenges for the Canadian dollar. Even if tariffs are evaded or reduced, discussions surrounding the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), due for review in 2026, could continue to exert pressure on the currency. The USMCA remains a critical factor, with the possibility of U.S. efforts to modify the pact in its favor looming over future trade relations.
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