Navitas stock soars as company advances 800V tech for NVIDIA AI platforms
When InvestingPro’s Fair Value models flagged Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) as significantly overvalued on August 5, 2025, the AI-driven lending platform was trading at $82.62. Just two months later, the stock has declined 41.2% to $48.58, demonstrating the powerful predictive capabilities of our valuation methodology. For investors seeking similar opportunities, our Most overvalued list continues to identify stocks trading above their intrinsic value.
Upstart, which leverages artificial intelligence to assess borrower creditworthiness, has faced mounting challenges despite its innovative approach to lending. When our models identified the overvaluation, the company reported revenue of $884.8 million and EBITDA of $5.52 million, with negative earnings per share of -$0.068. The company’s stock had experienced significant volatility in the preceding months, with dramatic swings culminating in an unsustainable rally through June and July 2025.
Our Fair Value analysis indicated a significant downside potential of 34.37%, closely matching the stock’s subsequent performance. This accuracy stems from our comprehensive valuation methodology, which incorporates multiple factors including cash flow analysis, comparable company metrics, and market sentiment indicators. The thesis was further validated by subsequent developments, including insider selling by multiple executives and a $600 million convertible notes offering that raised dilution concerns.
Recent quarterly results have reinforced our bearish stance, with Q2 earnings missing analyst expectations despite a revenue beat. Rising loan delinquencies and challenges in the company’s lending profile have prompted several analysts to lower their price targets, with Jefferies reducing their target to $56 and highlighting concerns about credit trends.
InvestingPro’s Fair Value methodology proved particularly effective in this case by identifying multiple red flags, including elevated valuation metrics, insider selling patterns, and fundamental weaknesses in the company’s business model. Our analysis considered both quantitative factors and qualitative elements such as market positioning and competitive pressures.
For investors seeking to identify similar opportunities and protect their portfolios from overvalued stocks, InvestingPro offers comprehensive tools and analysis. Learn more about InvestingPro to access our Fair Value models, real-time alerts, and detailed financial analysis that can help you make more informed investment decisions.