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Investing.com -- Barclays says Gartner’s near-term results are at risk as U.S. government spending curbs, macro uncertainty and possible fallout from AI alternatives weigh on the research firm’s growth outlook. Brokerage downgraded the company to Equal Weight from Overweight.
The brokerage cut its price target to $270 from $320.
Barclays said its latest survey of chief information officers turned “even more negative” for the second half of 2025, suggesting continued weakness in corporate tech budgets.
Barclays also warned that ongoing government shutdown effects and restrictions under the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) program could further hurt Gartner’s federal business, which has already halved.
While Barclays said it does not see an immediate “doomsday” scenario from AI tools replacing Gartner’s research, it expects some pressure on seat growth and pricing over time.
It added that Gartner’s leadership has downplayed AI risks and stuck to its long-term goal of 12% to 16% growth, which investors view as unrealistic.
Barclays forecasts Gartner’s core contract value to rise about 3% to 6% annually through 2027, well below management’s double-digit targets.
It said aggressive buybacks, about $2 billion this year, should cushion earnings, but not offset weaker top-line growth.
Barclays expects margins to stay around 24% and sees any recovery in client spending as a 2026 event.
The firm said investor skepticism will likely persist until Gartner shows tangible improvement in sales productivity and demand, particularly as the debate over AI disruption continues to hang over the stock.