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GLOBAL MARKETS-Asia shares start new year in upbeat mood, much already priced in

Published 04/01/2021, 01:27
Updated 04/01/2021, 01:30
© Reuters.
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* Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
* Nikkei hits fresh 30-year high, Asia ex-Japan near record
* Dollar under pressure as U.S. deficits swell
* Factory surveys, U.S. jobs and Fed minutes all ahead

By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Asian share markets got the new
year off to a solid start on Monday on expectations central
banks will keep money super cheap while the rollout of
coronavirus vaccines helps slowly revive the global economy.
With so much growth already priced in, it might be hard for
economies to match markets' high hopes, but for now momentum was
with the bulls. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares
outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS edged up 0.1%, a whisker from a
record high.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 rose 0.4% to reach peaks not seen
since August 1990, having added 16% last year. E-Mini futures
for the S&P 500 ESc1 were flat after touching a new all-time
high in early trade.
Investors are cautiously watching runoff elections in
Georgia for two U.S. Senate seats on Tuesday that will determine
which party controls the Senate. If the Republicans win one or both, they will retain a slim
majority in the chamber and can block President-elect Joe
Biden's legislative goals and judicial nominees.
"If Democrats win both races, Vice President-elect Kamala
Harris would be the tiebreaking vote, giving the party unified
control of the White House and Congress," noted analysts at CBA.
"This would raise the likelihood a material U.S.
infrastructure spending package gets fast tracked through
Congress."
Minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting due on
Wednesday should offer more detail on discussions about making
their forward policy guidance more explicit and the chance of a
further increase in asset buying this year.
The data calendar includes a raft of manufacturing surveys
across the globe, which will show how industry is coping with
the spread of the coronavirus, and the closely watched ISM
surveys of U.S. factories and services.
Friday sees the December payroll report where median
forecasts are for only a modest increase of 100,000.
Analysts as Barclays are tipping a fall of 50,000 in jobs,
which would be a shock to market hopes of a speedy recovery.
"A number of incoming indicators on activity point to slower
momentum as the economy closes out the year, including data on
labour markets where initial claims rose during the December
survey period," said economist Michael Gapen in a note.
Such a drop would add pressure on the Fed to ease further,
another burden for the dollar which is already buckling under
the weight of the massive U.S. budget and trade deficits.
The dollar index was last at 89.828 =USD , not far from its
recent 2-1/2-year low of 89.515 having shed almost 7% in 2020.
The euro inched up to $1.2245 EUR= , having run into profit
taking late last week when it reached the highest since early
2018 at $1.2309. It gained almost 9% over 2020.
The dollar held at 103.14 yen JPY= , having again survived
a test of key support at 102.55. Sterling was firm at $1.3674
GBP= , within spitting distance of its recent top of $0.13686.
The decline in the dollar has been a support for gold,
leaving the metal 0.6% firmer at $1,910 an ounce XAU= .
Oil prices have steadied after a couple of months of solid
gains, with Brent meeting resistance around $52.50 a barrel.
The rebound still left Brent down 21.5% for the year, and WTI
20.5%. O/R
On Monday, Brent crude LCOc1 futures fell 8 cents to
$51.72, while U.S. crude CLc1 eased 12 cents to $48.40 a
barrel.

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Asia stock markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
Asia-Pacific valuations https://tmsnrt.rs/2Dr2BQA
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(Editing by Jane Wardell)

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