Morgan Stanley lifts forecast for Chinese stocks, citing hopes for strong earnings

Published 26/03/2025, 11:28
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Investing.com - Morgan Stanley has raised its targets for Chinese stock markets for the second time this year, citing signs of stronger fourth-quarter earnings and upward outlook revisions.

In a note to clients, the analysts led by Laura Wang lifted their 2025 year-end index targets for the Hang Seng, HSCEI, and MSCI China, implying 9% upside from current levels. The target for the CSI 300 was also upgraded to 4,220, or an 8% uptick.

"The increases are directly driven by moderately higher earnings growth forecasts," as well as "improved" macroeconomic and foreign exchange forecasts, the analysts wrote.

Companies tracked by the MSCI China index are particularly on pace to set its first earnings beat after 13 straight quarterly misses, "while earnings estimate reductions are approaching inflection," they added.

The comments come as China’s government has been rolling out measures aimed at stimulating activity in an economy grappling with sluggish consumer demand and an ailing property market. The MSCI China index has risen by around 16% so far this year, outperforming some global peers, fueled by Beijing’s policy moves and indications of China’s increased presence in generative artificial intelligence.

But uncertainties still face China, with investors flagging concerns over the impact of renewed trade tensions with the U.S.

President Donald Trump has slapped more import tariffs on Chinese products since his return to the White House earlier this year, exacerbating worries of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Trump is expected to announce possible reciprocal tariffs on China and a host of other countries on April 2, as he looks to address perceived trade imbalances with the U.S.

However, China’s domestic equities remain relatively better positioned than other emerging markets to deal with increased levies "given that the market had rather pessimistic expectations towards tariff hikes against China since the beginning of the year," the Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts argued.

The brokerage has also upgraded its projections for China’s economic growth this year to 4.5% from 4%. Morgan Stanley also sees the yuan trading at 7.35 per dollar by mid-2025 and 7.50 by the end of the year, versus a previous estimate of 7.50 and 7.60, respectively.

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