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Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) reshuffled its ratings on European energy majors, downgrading BP (NYSE:BP) to Underweight, cutting Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) to Equal-weight, and upgrading TotalEnergies (EPA:TTEF) to Overweight, citing a deteriorating oil price outlook and the sector’s vulnerability to weaker balance sheets.
Shell, remains the Wall Street giant’s top pick in the sector, but its overall industry view has reverted to “Cautious” amid expectations for a meaningful surplus in the oil market starting in the fourth quarter.
Morgan Stanley now forecasts Brent crude to fall to around $55 per barrel in the first half of 2026, weighed down by a “triple headwind” of weaker demand due to tariffs, rising non-OPEC supply, and OPEC’s easing of production cuts.
As a result, it sees downside risk to earnings and buybacks and expects net debt to rise over time, weighing on equity performance. “The sector trades on a ‘genuinely free’ free cash flow (FCF) yield of just ~6%, on our estimates,” analysts wrote, after adjusting for hybrid bond and lease liability payments.
The downgrade of BP was driven by elevated balance sheet risk and limited upside. Analysts noted BP is “by far the most leveraged amongst peers,” and warned its free cash flow yield after hybrid bond and lease payments drops to just ~5% in 2026.
“We downgrade the stock to Underweight,” analysts led by Martijn Rats wrote, adding that the earnings forecasts for BP are the furthest below consensus in the group.
Equinor was cut to Equal-weight as analysts cited a more challenging capital allocation narrative, including its exposure to troubled offshore wind projects and rising gearing.
While Morgan Stanley sees upside to Equinor’s 2025 earnings, they expect buybacks to fall from $5 billion this year to $1.5 billion annually from 2026 onward.
TotalEnergies was upgraded to Overweight, with the bank highlighting its “strategic consistency,” defensive qualities, and better positioning relative to peers under a weaker macro backdrop.
“We see less downside risk to consensus estimates,” the analysts said.
Valuation is no longer a clear support for the sector, according to the note. On Morgan Stanley’s estimates, the sector trades at around 5x forward Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) – close to a two-standard deviation premium to history—making the risk-reward profile increasingly unattractive.