Oppenheimer sees increasing risks for Tesla ’as EV and AV competition intensifies’

Investing.com -- Oppenheimer analysts warned that Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) faces rising risks as competition in both electric and autonomous vehicles (AVs) heats up, and they trimmed their 2025 and 2026 delivery estimates as a result.

"We see increasing risks to Street estimates for TSLA as EV and AV competition intensifies," said the firm.

“While TSLA has shifted focus to being a Physical AI play, we view Elon Musk’s bid for Open AI as a distraction from TSLA’s challenges,” Oppenheimer added, noting that the bid was made at a 38% discount to OpenAI’s October 2024 capital raise and is unlikely to progress.

Tesla’s robotaxi ambitions could face pricing and technology competition, with rivals advancing their AV efforts. 

“Even with TSLA meeting its June 2025 timeline for driverless cars in TX, we still see TSLA as one of several autonomous technology providers, suggesting competition on price and performance,” said Oppenheimer. 

Lyft’s recent partnership with Marubeni and Mobileye to bring robotaxis by late 2026 was cited as an example of growing alternatives.

Meanwhile, China is said to remain a major challenge, with BYD (SZ:002594) slashing the price of its entry-level EV below $10,000 and XPeng (NYSE:XPEV) launching 0% financing and free charging offers. 

Oppenheimer says Tesla itself has continued offering insurance subsidies and 0% financing, indicating price pressure.

The report also flagged Musk’s political activity as a potential overhang on Tesla sales and employee recruitment. “We see the biggest risk in CA and the broader EU, where TSLA has seen ongoing declines since the start of 2023,” analysts noted.

Oppenheimer cut its 2025 delivery forecast by 20,000 vehicles and 2026 by 28,000, lowering its 2025 revenue estimate to $99.8 billion (from $101.1 billion) and EPS to $1.58 (from $1.63).