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Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley cut its rating on Sasol Ltd to Equal-weight from Overweight, warning that recent share gains are masking weak free cash flow prospects and long-term risks to its South African business.
The brokerege also lowered its price target to R120 from R140.
“Sasol has outperformed peers over various time periods albeit off a highly depressed base,” Morgan Stanley said.
The rally was supported by improved second-half cash flow, progress on cost-cutting projects, and optimism around China’s policy measures.
But the brokerage said much of the debt reduction in fiscal 2025 came from temporary factors, including a Transnet payment, working capital unwind and dividend receipts.
“Near-term FCF generation prospects remain poor in our view,” it said, forecasting free cash flow of R5 to R6 per share in 2026 and 2027, leaving the stock trading at about 20 times cash flow.
There are headwinds from weaker oil and chemical markets, also a stronger rand and ongoing structural issues.
“Our key concern remains feedstock – both the depletion in Mozambique gas supply and the availability or cost of replacement coal given the ongoing structural decline in Sasol’s own production volumes,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said.
Rising South African carbon taxes will also weigh on returns, it added.
While refining margins are providing some offset, the bank said longer-term risks will erode much of Sasol’s progress. It cut earnings forecasts by nearly a fifth for 2026 and 2027, citing lower coal and chemical volumes and currency strength.
At R117 per share, Sasol is now trading in line with spot oil prices for the first time in years, Morgan Stanley noted, but cautioned that the macro backdrop leaves “caution warranted.”