Societe Generale predicts rising volatility as interest rates fall

Published 27/03/2025, 13:00
© Pavlo Gonchar / SOPA Images/Sipa via Reuters Connect

Investing.com -- Stock market volatility is expected to rise over the next few years due to a normalization of correlation as interest rates decrease, according to Societe Generale (OTC:SCGLY).

Derivatives strategists Jitesh Kumar and Vincent Cassot noted that the level of volatility in Europe is likely to stay lower than in the United States. This is due to differing fiscal stances in Germany and the US, assuming all other factors remain constant.

Kumar and Cassot also highlighted that put spreads, a type of options strategy, are currently the most cost-effective hedges in both Europe and the US.

The strategists noted that defensive sectors are expected to perform well. However, a rise in inflation could also benefit some sectors sensitive to commodities and interest rates.

In terms of preferred option trades, Kumar and Cassot recommended bank call ratios, utilities, and miners call spreads. They also advised maintaining some exposure to China for diversification, suggesting call ratios on the FXI ETF or Hang Seng Index.

The strategists pointed out that the recent underperformance of skew, a measure of option pricing, is a result of elevated but well-hedged positioning. They also noted that the pricing of tail-risk, the risk of extreme market moves, has improved following a recent sell-off.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers
© 2007-2025 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.