Tesla stock target slashed at Mizuho on continued headwinds from slowing sales

Investing.com -- Mizuho (NYSE:MFG) Securities has lowered its price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to $375 from $390, pointing to continued global sales headwinds and a softer outlook for battery electric vehicle (BEV) growth in the United States.

The brokerage also cut its revenue and delivery estimates across 2025 to 2027, but maintained the Outperform rating on the stock.

Tesla’s second-quarter sales fell globally, contributing to what Mizuho described as ongoing “brand headwinds.”

Analysts now expect full-year 2025 revenue of $91 billion, down from a previous forecast of $91.7 billion and below the Street consensus of $95.9 billion.

For 2026, estimates were also trimmed to $118 billion from $119 billion. Deliveries were revised down to 1.60 million in 2025 and 1.96 million in 2026.

The analysts flag “continued headwinds from slowing sales,” but note that Tesla remains the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) leader as its long-awaited robotaxis start to hit the road in Texas. Because of these tailwinds, they think that Tesla’s long-term tailwinds “remain intact."

The revised price target reflects a multiple of 11.2x Mizuho’s forecast for 2026 sales, slightly above Tesla’s five-year average range.

The analysts also pointed to the phaseout of U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives at the end of the third quarter as a looming risk, with dealers still working through pre-tariff inventory.

Speaking more broadly, while China EV sales remain strong, Mizuho expects U.S. headwinds to drag on growth in the near term.

Nonetheless, the firm raised its 2025 global BEV production growth estimate to 15%, up from a prior forecast of 6%, citing better-than-expected demand trends in Europe and China.

BEV registrations in the EU rose 25% year-to-date through May, while China’s EV sales remain strong, supported by roughly $42 billion in national subsidies.

These gains are helping to offset sluggish U.S. demand, where the expiration of federal EV incentives later this year poses an additional risk.