TSX gains after CPI shows US inflation rose 3%
Investing.com -- Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares may be pricing in too much optimism, according to one Wall Street analyst, who reiterated a Sector Weight rating on the stock despite stronger-than-expected September data.
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Brandon Nispel said Apple’s hardware metrics were solid but not enough to justify the valuation.
“With AAPL trading at all-time highs, we see the stock as expensive and pricing in lofty expectations though we are lacking a bear case,” Nispel wrote in a note to clients.
KeyBanc’s proprietary data tracker showed indexed spending rising 17% month over month in September, above the three-year average of 12%.
However, year-over-year spending fell 15%, showing some deceleration from August. Nispel said the firm’s KFLD readings were “the most bearish data points we’ve seen” compared with carrier checks and consumer surveys.
Even so, KeyBanc said Apple looks poised to beat iPhone expectations in the fiscal fourth quarter and guide in line for the next quarter.
“We see ASPs, not units, being the driver of growth in FY26,” the analysts wrote. The firm raised its revenue estimates for fiscal 2025 and 2026 by up to 2.2%, citing stronger iPhone and wearables demand.
Still, KeyBanc maintained a neutral stance. “We see a neutral risk/reward given the all-time-high stock valuation, which seems to be pricing in a lot of growth,” Nispel said, noting that Apple lacks a strong bull case even as regulatory and China-related risks have eased.